China News Service Client, Beijing, April 10 (Xie Yiguan) According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, the national consumer price (CPI) rose 4.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and returned to the "4 era" . The analysis believes that the resumption of production and production is gradually accelerating, transportation and logistics are gradually recovering, and the supply and price stabilization measures continue to intensify, pushing the CPI growth rate down.
CPI chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics
CPI year-on-year increase fell sharply
From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 4.3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and fell below 5% for the first time this year.
Specifically, food prices rose by 18.3%, and the increase fell by 3.6 percentage points, which affected the CPI to rise by about 3.70 percentage points. Non-food prices rose by 0.7%, and the rate of increase fell by 0.2 percentage points, affecting the increase of CPI by about 0.57 percentage points.
"Since March, the pace of resuming production and production has been accelerated, logistics transportation has gradually recovered, transportation costs have fallen and supply has recovered, and the supply of major food and consumer goods has improved." Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, told reporters that non-food prices have narrowed their increase To a low level of 0.7%, on the one hand, the impact of the epidemic has weakened, and on the other hand, the sharp drop in crude oil prices has brought down the retail price of fuel oil.
Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said, "In food, pork prices have risen by 116.4%, with a decrease of 18.8 percentage points. The prices of beef, lamb, chicken, and duck have increased by 10.7% -21.7%; Last month, the increase turned to a decrease of 0.1%; the price of fresh fruit decreased by 6.1%, and the decline increased by 0.5 percentage points. Among non-food products, the prices of education, culture, entertainment, and health care rose by 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively, and the prices of transportation and communications fell by 3.8%. "
"According to estimates, of the 4.3% year-on-year increase, the tailing effect of price changes last year was about 3.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 1.0 percentage points. From January to March, the average CPI rose 4.9% from the same period last year." Dong Lijuan pointed out.
Data map: Supermarket employees are sorting pork. Zhang Yunshe
Pork prices have more than doubled year-on-year and narrowed month-on-month
In food, pork prices rose by 116.4% year-on-year, affecting the CPI rise of about 2.79 percentage points. It is still the main factor affecting the rise of CPI, but it has narrowed month-on-month in March.
"With the gradual flow of live pigs, the resumption of slaughtering enterprises and the resumption of production, and the increasing supply of reserve meat in various places, pork prices in March fell by 6.9% month-on-month." Dong Lijuan pointed out.
According to the monitoring of the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork (the average wholesale price of white-striped meat) was 47.79 yuan / kg in March, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous month and a rise of 145.3% from the same period last year.
Peng Shaozong, deputy director of the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission and first-level inspector, said at a press conference on March 19 that in the past month, in response to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the pork market has been strengthened to regulate and control the supply and price stability. As a result, pork prices have continued to fall from relatively high levels.
Data map: The flow of people in the Hohhot vegetable market is surging. Photo by Liu Wenhua
What is the future trend of CPI increase?
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from March 30 to April 5, the national market price of edible agricultural products fell by 1% from the previous week, and fell for 6 consecutive weeks. The price of meat fell in different degrees, and the wholesale price of pork fell by 2.6%. Vegetable prices fell seasonally, and the average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables fell by 0.6%. The prices of fruits fell slightly, and the average wholesale prices of six kinds of fruits such as apples, watermelons, bananas, pears, grapes, and citrus fell by 0.1%.
Regarding the future CPI increase trend, Liu Xuezhi told reporters, "The high point of CPI has passed, and it may tend to fall in the future."
According to Liu Xuezhi, as the stock of live pigs gradually picks up and the supply of pork increases, the increase in pork prices will narrow, and the effect on CPI will be weakened; the epidemic situation leads to weak consumer demand, coupled with the decline in the price of industrial factory products, it is difficult to support The prices of related consumer goods rose. Throughout the year, the CPI tailing factor was high before low, and dropped significantly after the third quarter.
"China's price remains stable on a solid foundation. As the prevention and control situation of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic continues to improve, the production and living order is accelerating, the production capacity is further released, and the price increase is expected to fall. It is expected that the price trend throughout the year will be high and low. There is no basis for a comprehensive increase. "Peng Shaozong said.
Recently, many countries have restricted grain exports, and some people worry that this move will cause domestic grain prices to rise, which will push up the CPI increase.
“The country is accelerating the advancement of spring arable preparations, and grain production is guaranteed, especially the production and reserves of grains, wheat and other staple foods are sufficient and the self-sufficiency rate is high. The grain prices are expected to remain stable and will not be significantly affected by the global spread of the epidemic and insect pests. .
CITIC Securities estimates show that the weight of food prices in the CPI is 1.4% -2%. It is expected that the food price will drive the annual CPI growth rate at 0.04 percentage points, with little impact. "The weight of livestock meat prices in the CPI is 4.4%. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in 2020 will be mainly driven by pork prices, showing a trend of high and low." (End)