Currency warming: the dollar for the first time since mid-March fell below 73 rubles

On Thursday, April 9, the Russian currency is confidently strengthening on the Moscow Exchange. During the bidding, the dollar depreciated by 2.6% and for the first time in almost four weeks reached 72.6 rubles. At the same time, the euro fell by 2.2% to 79.5 rubles. The value became the lowest since March 6th.

The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on April 10 is set at 74.6 rubles per dollar and 81.09 rubles per euro.

According to analysts, the appreciation of the national currency was influenced by the increase in world oil prices. During the bidding, the cost of Brent crude on the ICE exchange in London grew by 9% - up to $ 36 per barrel.

“Investors are now focusing on negotiations on a deal to reduce oil production. Before the meeting, Russia announced its readiness to reduce the production of raw materials by 1.6 million barrels per day. This statement gave the market a signal that the parties would still find a compromise on stabilizing prices on commodity exchanges. As a result, quotes crawled up, ”said Sergey Suverov, senior analyst at BCS Premier, to RT.

On the evening of April 9, hydrocarbon exporters in a video conference mode will discuss the situation in the global energy market. It is expected that states can again agree to extend cooperation in the format of the OPEC + agreement after the unexpected collapse of the alliance in March.

Recall that after several years of partnership on March 6, 2020, the OPEC + alliance members were not able to reach consensus on the new terms of the deal and decided to completely abandon all their obligations. This decision provoked the largest collapse in world oil prices in recent years.

So, over the past month, the cost of Brent raw materials on the ICE exchange in London almost doubled down and at the moment fell below $ 22 per barrel - for the first time since March 2002. A sharp reduction in the price of oil provoked a record weakening of the ruble. So March 23, the dollar rose to 81.9 rubles. The value has become the highest since January 2016.

At the same time, the possible conclusion of a deal between oil producers may become one of the key drivers for the rapid strengthening of the ruble. The creator of the ITLEADERS venture capital club, Egor Klopenko, spoke about this in an interview with RT.

“Charged with positive from the deal, oil quotes can quickly approach the mark of $ 40 per barrel, or even go above $ 45. Thus, prices have reached the level laid down in the Russian budget. This situation will again allow the dollar to drop to 70 rubles, ”the analyst predicts.

In addition to news from commodity platforms, the Russian currency is supported by the actions of the Bank of Russia. Recall, to stabilize the ruble since March 10, the Central Bank began proactive sale of foreign currency on the domestic market. Thus, the regulator artificially increases the demand for rubles.

Over the past month, the Bank of Russia has sold foreign currency worth approximately 232.3 billion rubles. At the same time, the regulator's measures to support business played in favor of the national currency. This point of view in a conversation with RT was voiced by analyst at Alor-broker Alexei Antonov.

“At its last meeting, the Central Bank kept the key rate at the same level of 6% per annum, while other world regulators began to lower their rates due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The policy of the Bank of Russia had a stabilizing effect on the ruble, since due to the relatively high interest rate, the ruble for foreign investors remains more attractive than other currencies in alternative markets, ”the expert emphasized.

In addition, stable macroeconomic factors of Russia play in favor of the ruble. So, according to Yegor Klopenko, investors positively assess the high volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves and the low level of the country's state debt.

“In addition, in the coming months, a lot of currency will be sold from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) to the account of a 2.5 trillion rubles transaction for the purchase by the Sberbank government. It can also support the ruble. At the same time, measures to support entrepreneurs, announced by the president and the government, play in favor of national currency, ”Klopenko emphasized.

Analysts do not exclude the possibility of new fluctuations in the Russian currency market in the near future, but at the same time they count on they believe that the national currency will gradually strengthen over the next few months. So, according to Alexei Antonov, if the peak of the coronavirus pandemic passes and agreements are reached on the OPEC + deal by the end of spring, the dollar will trade in the range of 70-74 rubles.