China's economy needs to "live" and then "stability"
Our reporter Wang Shijun
Monetary policy mainly addresses market liquidity issues, while fiscal policy mainly addresses economic and social issues.
Regarding the pace of domestic economic operation since this year, Zhang Wei, chief macro researcher of Kunlun Health Insurance Co., Ltd. believes that “the first quarter depends on currency, the second quarter looks at finances, and the third quarter sees results”. At the same time, he said that the current Chinese economy needs to "seek live" first and then "seek stability".
Zhang Wei believes that under the new crown pneumonia epidemic, for the Chinese economy, the most important thing is to ensure that enterprises enjoy sufficient cash flow to help companies "survive" the epidemic. The reason for this view is based on the following authoritative data.
The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to February this year, the nation's investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 332.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 27.38%. Among them, private fixed asset investment was 1,983.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%. From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size actually decreased by 13.5% year-on-year (after deducting the actual growth rate of price factors), and decreased by 26.63% month-on-month. In terms of three major categories, from January to February, the value added of the mining industry fell by 6.5% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry fell by 15.7%, and the power, heat, gas and water production and supply industries fell by 7.1%.
At the same time, from January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.213 trillion yuan, a nominal decrease of 20.5% year-on-year (after deducting price factors, the actual decrease was 23.7%). Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles was 4,874.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.9%. From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 38.3%. Among them, the state-owned holding enterprises realized a total profit of 146.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9%; at the end of February, accounts receivable of industrial enterprises above designated size was 13.80 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%; the inventory of finished products was 4,248.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%.
Zhang Wei said that in the first quarter of this year, a series of measures to ease the financing difficulties and expensive financing of enterprises were introduced in China. On March 13th, the central bank announced a RRR cut and released 550 billion yuan of liquidity, mainly to increase the bank's stable source of funds to support the real economy. Through bank conduction, it will help promote the reduction of the actual interest rate of loans of small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, and directly support the real economy. . The RRR cut further validates the judgment that “liquidity was used in the first quarter to fill corporate liquidity crisis”.
In addition, the social security data released in February recently showed that government bonds were lower than expected, which also meant that the first quarter was not enough time for fiscal strength to "stabilize the economy." Vigorously issuing government bonds to fill fiscal revenues and then fill economic gaps with fiscal expenditures is something that will be done after the full resumption of work in the second quarter. (Securities Daily)