China News Service, Beijing, March 31 (Liu Liang) According to the latest economic forecast report of the World Bank, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, under the baseline scenario, the growth rate of developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific (hereinafter referred to as "East Asia") will be 2020. It is expected to be reduced to 2.1%. The World Bank calls on East Asian countries to take immediate action to mitigate the impact of the epidemic on the economy.
The reporter learned from the World Bank's representative office in China on the 31st that the World Bank ’s latest April 2020 “East Asian and Pacific Economic Semi-annual Report” pointed out that with the continued spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the intensification of financial turmoil, East Asia The outlook for economic growth in 2020 will slow to 2.1% from an estimated 5.8% in 2019.
Excluding China, the growth rate of East Asia is expected to slow from 4.7% in 2019 to 1.3% under the baseline scenario in 2020, and fall to negative 2.9% in the pessimistic scenario. The World Bank predicts that as the impact of the epidemic subsides, the situation will gradually improve in 2021.
The World Bank points out that the two scenarios of “baseline scenario and pessimistic scenario hypothesis” are because it is difficult to make accurate growth forecasts in a rapidly changing environment.
"The countries of East Asia and the Pacific are already struggling to cope with the impact of international trade tensions and the spread of new crowns in the country, and are now facing a global epidemic. The good news is that the region has Available power, but countries must act quickly and on a scale never imagined. "
Facing the current economic situation under the epidemic situation, the measures recommended by the World Bank include strengthening public health capacity and longer-term prevention in public health. In addition to expanding conventional medical facilities and medical equipment manufacturing plants, innovative measures may be needed, such as converting general hospital beds to intensive care beds, and rapidly training personnel to participate in basic medical work.
In fiscal and monetary policy, the World Bank recommends that fiscal measures be tilted towards the most economically vulnerable groups. For example, subsidies for sick pay and medical expenses, and provision of temporary assistance to families whose income has been negatively affected by the epidemic. In addition, injecting economic liquidity helps companies maintain operations and maintain beneficial links with global value chains.
In the financial sector, the World Bank recommends relaxing household credit restrictions to ease difficulties and ease corporate liquidity pressures. At the same time, regulators must ensure disclosure of risk information and clearly communicate regulatory expectations to avoid financial instability.
For poorer countries, the Bank suggests that debt relief will be necessary to focus key resources on managing the economic and health impacts of the outbreak.
The World Bank pointed out that currently in the Pacific Islands countries, the economic outlook for 2020 is facing great risks because their economies rely on grants and tourism development. If the new crown pneumonia epidemic continues to worsen and travel restrictions become stricter or longer, it will have a further negative impact on tourism activities. In addition, country-specific factors such as drought (Thailand) and commodity shocks (Malaysia and Mongolia) are also putting pressure on regional economic prospects.
"In addition to bold national action, deepening international cooperation is the most effective vaccine against the threat of the virus. Countries in East Asia and the Pacific and other regions must work together to prevent and control the epidemic, Keep trade open and coordinate macroeconomic policies. "(End)