Observation ｜ Top ten GDP cities settled: Chongqing approaches Guangzhou, Tianjin drops to tenth
With the release of the Wuhan Economic Annual Report on March 29, the top ten cities in China's GDP in 2019 are finally settled.
Compared to 2018, the city's TOP 10 lineup has not changed, including the four municipalities directly under the Central Government of Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, and Tianjin, five sub-provincial cities of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu, and Hangzhou, and Suzhou, an ordinary prefecture-level city.
In terms of regional distribution, only Beijing and Tianjin are located in the north, and the rest are cities in the south. From the perspective of urban agglomerations, there are three in the Yangtze River Delta, two in the Pearl River Delta, two in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and Chengdu, and Wuhan represents the city group in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.
Data source: local statistical bureaus
However, the ranking within the top ten cities has changed again: after being slipped to sixth place by Chongqing in 2017, Tianjin's ranking once again fell to tenth place. Prior to the fourth national economic census, Tianjin's 2018 GDP had been significantly reduced by nearly 500 billion yuan.
In addition, Chongqing, the fifth largest GDP, is approaching Guangzhou, with a difference of less than 2.3 billion yuan. The rumored "Wuhan overtakes Chengdu" has not been achieved before. The two cities led the top ten with growth rates of 7.8% and 7.4% respectively, and the gap widened from nearly 50 billion yuan in the previous year to 78.944 billion yuan.
How did the top ten cities perform in 2019, and where did the growth drive come from? Uncle Cheng will select representative cities from the "troika" driving economic development, and analyze one or two.
Yusui: The gap has narrowed and the gap has narrowed
Compared with 2018, the ranking of the top five cities in GDP last year was exactly the same, but the gap between Guangzhou and Chongqing has narrowed significantly.
In 2018, the GDP gap between Guangzhou and Chongqing was still around 250 billion yuan. By 2019, this figure has been significantly reduced to less than 2.3 billion yuan. One of the main reasons behind this is that the fourth economic census significantly increased the total economic volume of Chongqing.
The ups and downs in import and export trade are a microcosm of the narrowing of the gap between the two places.
In 2018, Guangzhou's total import and export volume was 981.15 billion yuan, an increase of 1.0%, and its net export volume was 140.501 billion yuan; Chongqing's total import and export volume was 479.437 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9%, and its net export value was 156.794 billion yuan.
By 2019, in the context of a more complex global trade environment, Chongqing's total imports and exports will reach 57.278 billion yuan, continuing to maintain double-digit growth (11.0%), and the net export value will still reach 163.306 billion yuan; and the total import and export volume of Guangzhou will be 9995.81 100 million yuan, an increase of 1.9%, and the net export value "ebb" to only about 52 billion yuan.
Earlier, when analyzing Chongqing's foreign trade performance in 2019, Chongqing Customs mentioned:
This is mainly due to Chongqing's overall economic stability and rising economic stability, the continuous release of the effects of stable foreign trade policies, the enhanced role of Chongqing's open platform and open channels, and Chongqing's mature electronic information industry's outstanding contribution.
In August last year, the “Land and Sea Corridor” connecting Chongqing and Chengdu to Beibu Gulf was officially promoted as a national strategy, becoming the third “artery” in the western region after the Yangtze River Corridor and the China-Europe International Railway Western Corridor.
Data show that, driven by complementary industries and new land and sea channels, ASEAN will surpass the EU to become Chongqing's largest foreign trade partner in 2019. In the first two months of this year, Chongqing's imports and exports to ASEAN reached 13.67 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3%.
Of course, to many people, Chongqing, as a municipality, is much higher in rank, population, and area than Guangzhou. Therefore, simply comparing GDP is not enough to explain the problem.
Therefore, we may wish to compare the development quality of the two cities by using the per capita data of the two cities in 2019.
Data source: local statistical bureaus
It can be seen that regardless of GDP per capita or disposable income per capita, Chongqing is only about half that of Guangzhou. In addition, Guangzhou has 107 listed companies with a market value of more than 1.5 trillion yuan; Chongqing has only 54 listed companies with a market value of less than 700 billion yuan.
Earlier, there were many speculations that Chongqing's GDP will probably surpass Guangzhou in 2020 or 2021. However, GDP is only an indicator of urban development. There is still a long way to go for Chongqing to truly overtake Guangzhou.
Guangshen: leading investment, accelerated infrastructure
From the perspective of investment in fixed assets, the two fastest-growing cities in the top ten cities are the two "geminis" of Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Last year, the growth rate of Shenzhen's fixed asset investment reached 18.8%, and Guangzhou also reached 16.5%.
Today, it has been more than a year since the Outline of the Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area was published. With the acceleration of the construction pace, many cities in Guangdong have set off a new round of construction boom in the areas of infrastructure such as transportation, energy, information, and water conservancy.
On January 15 this year, Ge Changwei, the director of the Guangdong Development and Reform Commission, revealed at the third meeting of the 13th National People's Congress of Guangdong Province that in promoting the construction of infrastructure projects in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, in 2019, it mainly promoted the development of nine cities in the Greater Bay Area Infrastructure connectivity.
At the end of 2018, the "Shenzhen Infrastructure Investment Fund" was formally established. "Nanfang Daily" stated in the report at the time that "the establishment of the fund aims to give full play to the leverage of government investment, improve the efficiency of government investment, further attract social capital to participate in infrastructure construction, and help Shenzhen modernize and build an international and innovative city."
Last year, the pace of construction of key projects such as Shenzhen's Qianhai Internationalized City Center, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Science and Technology Innovation Cooperation Zone, and Bright Science City accelerated significantly. Data show that in 2019, Shenzhen's fixed asset investment increased by 18.8%, of which infrastructure investment increased by 33.6%. This year, Shenzhen's annual fixed asset investment plan exceeded 800 billion yuan, an increase of 15%.
Look at Guangzhou. The latest Guangzhou Statistical Bulletin shows that in 2019, Guangzhou's fixed asset investment growth rate was 16.5%, reaching its highest level in five years. Among them, Guangzhou's private investment has turned from a negative growth of 9.1% in 2018 to a positive growth.
Growth rate of fixed asset investment in Guangzhou, 2015-2019
Chart source: Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics
Among the three investment areas, infrastructure investment increased by 24.5%, real estate development investment increased by 14.8%, and industrial investment increased by 9.1%.
It is worth noting that investment in Guangzhou's high-tech industry (manufacturing) dropped by 27.7% over the previous year, while investment in advanced manufacturing dropped by 15.6%.
Chengdu: Leading by Zero, Consumption Upgrading
From the perspective of consumption, among the top ten cities of GDP, Chengdu ’s total retail sales of consumer goods grew the fastest, reaching 9.9%.
Data source: local statistical bureaus
Specifically, Chengdu's consumption growth rate is mainly reflected in upgrade consumption. The retail sales of Chinese and Western medicines, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics have all increased by more than 10%, and wearable smart devices and new energy vehicles have grown by more than 100%.
From the perspective of consumer formats, online retail has grown rapidly. Enterprises (units) above designated size achieved an increase of 15.0% in retail sales of goods through the Internet, driving the city's retail sales above designated size to increase by 2.9%.
Today, in the "troika" driving economic growth, consumption has become a veritable driving force.
At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that the advantages of ultra-large-scale markets should be fully exploited, and the fundamental role of consumption and the key role of investment should be brought into play.
Earlier last October, 14 departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Cultivation and Construction of an International Consumer Center City". It was proposed that China should build a group of "international consumer center cities with global influence" within five years.
Following Shanghai and Beijing, Chengdu has also made clear that it will vigorously develop the city's first stores and specialty stores, and promote the construction of an international consumption center city with a "two stores" economy.
"Chengdu has a very good consumer culture foundation." According to Wang Wei, director of the Institute of Market Economy of the National Research Center, such a "cultural gene" also provides a huge support for the high concentration of consumer industries in Chengdu and the development of new consumption.
Data show that the number of first stores settled in Chengdu in 2019 reached 473, a growth rate of 136.5%, second only to Shanghai and Beijing. Among them, there are 57 stores in the world and China, which are also second only to Shanghai and Beijing.
Not long ago, 23 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Expansion of Consumer Capacity and Quality and Accelerating the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market." It is foreseeable that how to promote consumption replenishment and release consumption potential will become the focus of the next efforts of various cities.
Tianjin: Stall left behind, mix change and increase income
Among the top ten cities, Tianjin is the most "frustrated".
Earlier, the Tianjin Bureau of Statistics released a statement that attributed the major revision of GDP in 2018 to two points: one is to change the development concept and eliminate a group of backward industries; the other is to seriously investigate and deal with statistical fraud and squeeze out the accumulated "moisture."
For this reason, its GDP ranking dropped directly from sixth to tenth. From the perspective of GDP growth rate in 2019, Tianjin is the only one of the top ten cities with GDP below 6%, only 4.8%.
The slowdown in economic growth can also be reflected in import and export data.
From the perspective of Tianjin's import and export situation from 2014 to 2018, as an important import port, Tianjin's import value has always been higher than the export value, and the ratio of import value to export value has remained in the range of 1.2-1.5.
Chart source: Tianjin Municipal Statistics Bureau
In the past year, Tianjin's imports and exports have both declined considerably. The total value of imports and exports for the year was 734.603 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.1%, of which imports fell by 11.2% and exports fell by 5.9%.
However, it is slightly unexpected that despite the poor economic performance, Tianjin's fiscal revenue has turned from a negative growth for two consecutive years to an increase of 14.4%, ranking first among the top ten cities.
Data source: local statistical bureaus
Data show that in 2019, Tianjin's general public budget revenue was 241.03 billion yuan, and 121.7% of the budget at the beginning of the year was completed. Previously, the Tianjin Municipal Finance Bureau had predicted that the growth rate of general public budget revenue in 2019 would be "narrowing down to about -6%." In other words, the data released this time is much higher than expected.
Prior to 2017 and 2018, dragged down by non-tax revenues, Tianjin's general public budget revenues fell by 10.4% and 8.8%, respectively, for two consecutive years. It is not difficult to find out that the growth rate of Tianjin's fiscal revenue has changed from negative to positive, which is due to the growth of non-tax revenue. In 2019, Tianjin's non-tax revenue was 77.61 billion yuan, an increase of 61.2%.
In this regard, the Tianjin Municipal Finance Bureau explained:
The increase in non-tax revenue was higher, mainly due to the activation of the realization of government assets in our city, the comprehensive reform of state-owned enterprises, the transfer of government-owned shares of some state-owned enterprises, and the state-owned capital operating income and state-owned resources (assets) paid use income increased significantly.
By the end of 2019, a total of 13 municipal management enterprises in Tianjin have completed mixed reforms, involving assets of 498.4 billion yuan, involving 78730 employees, and a total of 44.750 billion yuan of social capital has been introduced, driving more than 480 secondary and lower-level mixed reform enterprises.
Recently, Tianjin State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has launched 60 boutique state-owned enterprise mixed reform projects involving financial services, medicine, equipment manufacturing and other fields. Cooperation methods include property rights transfer, capital increase and share expansion.
Text | Liang Hongliang
Source: Urban Evolution