"Epilepsy" record of China's economic war: PMI index "V" rebound economic recovery remains to be seen

(Combating new crown pneumonia) China ’s economic war "epidemic" record: PMI index "V" rebound rebound economy remains to be seen

China News Agency, Beijing, March 31th: China ’s economic war "epidemic" record: PMI index "V" rebound economic recovery remains to be seen

China News Agency reporter Wang Enbo

China's latest official March purchasing manager index (PMI), which fell sharply last month, rose from a month-on-month basis, showing a "V" rebound.

As one of the internationally leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends, does this rebound in PMI mean that the Chinese economy has recovered?

——Why is there a "V" rebound?

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China show that in March, China's manufacturing PMI was 52.0%, a 16.3% increase from the previous month; non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, a 22.7% increase from the previous month; the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.0%, an increase of 24.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Talking about the reason for the sharp rebound in PMI data, the person in charge of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics explained that PMI is a chain index, which reflects the economic changes in this month compared with the previous month. relationship.

Since the beginning of this year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has severely impacted China's economy, especially the February PMI index fell to an all-time low, even lower than during the 2008 international financial crisis, and economic activity contracted sharply in the short term. However, since March, China has made positive progress in overall prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and its economic and social development. The situation of epidemic prevention and control has continued to improve, and the resumption of production and production of enterprises has accelerated significantly.

As of March 25, among the companies surveyed by national procurement managers, the resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises was 96.6%, an increase of 17.7 percentage points from the survey results on February 25, and the order of production and living has been steadily restored.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the PMI index increased significantly in March, indicating a remarkable return to work and production. The PMI index reflects a month-on-month change from the previous month. Since economic activity was hit hardest by the epidemic in February, the PMI index rose sharply in March in line with expectations.

——A rebound in PMI indicates a rebound in the economy?

Despite positive changes in the PMI index, analysts believe it is too early to conclude that the Chinese economy has recovered.

Zhang Liqun specially reminded that the PMI index was on the line of honor in March, which does not indicate that economic activity has fully recovered; it must be distinguished from the economic meaning expressed by the normal level change of the PMI index. At present, we must fully understand the unprecedented severity and complexity of the domestic and international economic situation, and attach great importance to the severe impact of the epidemic on social production and the three major needs.

The aforementioned person in charge also clearly pointed out that under normal circumstances, when the PMI changes in the same direction for more than three consecutive months, it can reflect the trend change of the economic operation. Only the monthly data rises to the line of prosperity and dryness, and it cannot be judged that the economy has fully returned to normal. Level, to achieve a trend improvement, we need to continue to observe changes.

Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that new major changes in the epidemic prevention and control and the economic situation at home and abroad are still occurring. The world epidemic situation is accelerating and spreading. The growth of the world economy and trade has been severely impacted. The pressure on China ’s epidemic input The economic development, especially the recovery of the industrial chain, is facing new challenges. The future trend of the purchasing manager index still needs to be continuously monitored.

——Will other data pick up at the same time?

After the PMI data rebounded in March, the market is also concerned that other major macroeconomic data will change simultaneously.

In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics stated that the PMI index is a monthly chain index, which is easily affected by factors such as workdays, seasons, and bases. Compared with the year-on-year indicator, the data has a larger volatility and is more suitable to reflect changes in the short-term economic situation.

When there are large fluctuations in the economy, sometimes the movements of the MoM and YoY indicators may diverge. Because most of China's current macroeconomic data are year-on-year indicators, a pick-up in PMI does not mean that other major macroeconomic data will necessarily change in the same direction.

Against this background, Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that counter-cyclical control will still need to be strengthened in the next stage, and financial, fiscal, and employment policies must be coordinated to open up the plugging points in various links to resume work and resume production, and increase funding security. To effectively reduce the financing cost of the real economy, thereby ensuring that the Chinese economy continues to show signs of positive improvement and achieve a trend improvement. (Finish)