Owner attention! Limited by "floor price", domestic oil price adjustment or stranded on the 31st

Zhongxin Jingwei Client March 31 (Wan Keyi) At 2400 today (31st), a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will be opened. A number of agencies have stated that there is a high probability that this round of oil price adjustment will be "stranded."

International oil prices are low

In early March, Saudi Arabia and Russia ’s “oil price war” caused a plunge in international oil prices in March due to the breakdown of the agreement between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil-producing countries to limit oil production to support oil prices. And in the short term, there is no sign of a truce in this price war between the two countries.

Photograph by Xin Jingwei of Zhang Jingnan

According to foreign media reports, OPEC's rotating presidency proposed a meeting last week to assess the market situation of the plunge in oil prices, but was opposed by most member states, and Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest opponents. Sources said that many OPEC members believe the meeting will not be effective because the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia needs to be resolved by their respective leaders.

As of the close of March 28, Beijing time, the US WTI May crude oil futures closed down US $ 1.09, or 4.82%, to US $ 21.51 / barrel, down 4.82% from the previous trading day, and down 4.1% from the previous week. The price of London Brent crude for May delivery fell by $ 1.41 to close at $ 24.93 per barrel, down 5.35% from the previous trading day, and down 7.6% over the week. On the morning of the 30th Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures plummeted more than 7% at one time, the lowest reported at 19.92 US dollars / barrel, hitting a new low since February 2002.

Zhuo Chuang Information Research report said that crude oil prices are difficult to get out of the turbulence range, and the weak turbulence continues. Frequent policies and bottom-selling funds provide bottom support, and sharp declines in demand caused by global public health events continue to put downward pressure on oil prices. Considering that Saudi Arabia has not shown any signs of softening in its price war, the bulls have little hope. The fundamentals of the oil market are too weak, and crude oil prices are under pressure.

In addition, Zhongyu Information analysis said that the short-term global monetary and fiscal policy boost to the risk market is difficult to benefit the crude oil market. From the perspective of market fundamentals, European and American crude oil prices may continue to record a downward trend.

This round of refined oil prices or stranded

Zhuo Chuang Information, a product oil analyst Zheng Mingya, analyzed the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, saying that crude oil had once risen because of investors' optimistic expectations that the US Congress could pass the economic stimulus bill. However, since the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia was not effectively resolved in the later period, crude oil turned around and fell back, and basically rose before the gains. As a result, the rate of change of crude oil continues to operate in a negative range.

Zheng Mingya further stated that although China ’s refined oil price mechanism is linked to crude oil, on January 3, 2016, a “ceiling price” and “floor price” mechanism was proposed for refined oil. The “floor price” mechanism refers to the When the price is lower than 40 USD / barrel, the retail price of gasoline and diesel will not be adjusted. Since the pricing cycle, although the rate of change of crude oil has been operating in a negative range, the average retail price of crude oil has continued to fall below the "floor price", so it is believed that the current retail price limit may not be adjusted.

Zhongyu Information also pointed out that from the point of view of the domestic price adjustment cycle, the negative value of the rate of change in this round of crude oil continued to stretch. As of March 27, the eighth working day of the round, the valuation of Zhongyu crude oil was $ 27.577 per barrel, which was 13.081 lower than the benchmark price. The dollar fell 32.17%. It is estimated that the retail price limit of refined oil products will be reduced by 1,100 yuan / ton at 24 o'clock on March 31. However, as the price of crude oil in the cycle is far lower than 40 dollars / barrel, the current price adjustment window will not open for the time being.

It is understood that in accordance with the "Measures for the Administration of Petroleum Prices" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission: "When the price of crude oil on the international market is lower than $ 40 per barrel (inclusive), the price of refined oil is calculated at the price of crude oil at $ 40 per barrel and normal processing profit margin." $ 40 per barrel is the so-called "floor price".

It is worth mentioning that since this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone five rounds of adjustment, showing a pattern of "three reductions and two stranded". The price of gasoline has been reduced by 1,850 yuan / ton, and the price of diesel has been reduced by 1,780 yuan / ton. If the current round of price adjustment windows is stranded, domestic oil product price adjustments this year will show a pattern of "zero up, three down, and three stranded."

It is reported that the next round of retail oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on April 15th. The agency believes that because the international oil price performance is still sluggish and there is no sign of improvement, it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will trigger the "floor price" without adjustment. The possibilities remain. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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