(Combating new crown pneumonia) Deutsche Bank: Epidemic or global economic recession, downward pressure on Europe and the United States
China News Agency, Beijing, March 30 (Reporter Wang Enbo) A report released by the Global Macro Research Team of Deutsche Bank Group on the 30th suggests that under the new crown pneumonia epidemic, there may be a severe global economic recession in the first half of 2020, especially in Europe and the United States. The pressure is greater. However, with the efforts of all countries to cope with the impact of the epidemic, a "V" recovery is expected in the second half of the year.
The report points out that given the wider and stricter measures adopted by various countries to prevent the spread of the epidemic, the credit market has tightened and the financial situation has tightened sharply, Deutsche Bank will significantly reduce the global economic growth forecast in the first half of this year, and the economic recession in the second quarter may reach the level A new high after the Second World War.
The report states that most of Europe is currently in a "capped city" or similar state, and the contraction of GDP in the first quarter may reach 4% -6%. US measures have lagged, and the impact will be more concentrated in the second quarter.
If the economic activity in the "capped city" state is only 15% -30% lower than the normal level, and the epidemic situation has eased after only lasting one month, and the economic activity gradually recovers, the second quarter GDP of Europe and the United States will decline or be 10%. If the actual situation in the later period is more severe than the above forecast, the blockade measures will last longer and stricter, and the GDP of Europe and the United States will shrink by a quarter or as high as 25%.
In response to the menacing epidemic, all parties have successively introduced a series of market rescue policies, including injecting liquidity into the market and introducing large-scale fiscal stimulus measures.
Deutsche Bank expects that the current stringent control measures and large-scale policy support adopted by countries around the world will bear fruit early in the middle of the year. By then, it is expected to flatten the "epidemic curve" of the euro area and the United States and promote their economic activity to rebound in the third and fourth quarters. The basic view of this "V" recovery is mainly based on China's development experience: the impact of the epidemic was reflected in the first quarter, and various economic activities in China are gradually recovering.
However, the report also reminded that the actual situation in the later period may be more severe than expected. New crown virus may be more difficult to control in the United States and the Eurozone than in China. Financial markets are under heavy pressure or cause economic activity to decline more drastically and more lastingly. However, given the commitment of leaders from all countries to do everything they can to slow the spread of the epidemic and ease financial tensions, coupled with the relatively good state of the global economy and banking industry at the time of the outbreak, Deutsche Bank has some confidence in the global economic recovery. (Finish)