If it is said that when China starts the national general mobilization of anti-epidemic in late January, the global economy and trade in 2020 still hopes to maintain positive growth; then, to this day, we can be sure that the shrinking global trade volume in 2020 is a foregone conclusion.

If the outbreak is limited to China, China ’s strong mobilization capacity will enable it to quickly extinguish the epidemic, without jeopardizing the growth of global trade throughout the year; however, other countries, especially the world ’s largest share of the world ’s economic trade, dominate Western countries in Europe, America, and the United States have wasted two months of China's fight for the world and failed to take strong action in time to fight the epidemic like China. As a result, new coronary pneumonia has now burned across Western countries like wildfire in Australia and will continue to intensify for quite a while.

The severity of the epidemic in Europe and the United States is fully surpassing China, which has triggered a global financial tremor. The prices of primary products such as oil and gas, which account for a significant share of international trade, have plummeted. The demand of major western economies to open the market has shrunk sharply, residents and market participants Expect rapid deterioration of the mutually reinforcing vicious circle ...

In such an environment, it is no longer available for global trade to shrink this year. In addition, the current US government, which has the greatest impact on global trade rules today, has intensified its efforts to adopt a series of irrational approaches during the epidemic shock. This year, the outlook for global trade volume has become increasingly bleak, and the global trade pattern will also accelerate its reshuffle in the epidemic shock.

The crisis of globalization, the response to high efficiency wins.

Although China was the first major global economy and trade country hit hard by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the strong pragmatic and efficient response made China achieve zero new confirmed cases on March 19, becoming the wildfire of the new crown epidemic. The "Oasis" at the time of the world has thus determined that China is expected to occupy a larger share and gain greater influence in the global trading system.

Main features of "global" new crown pneumonia epidemic

Let's examine the main features of the new crown of pneumonia epidemic, which is already highly “globalized”:

① Confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia have occurred in most countries around the world, and the population of these countries accounts for the vast majority of the global population.

② The increase of new confirmed cases overseas has continued to increase hundreds of times over China. From February 26 to the present, the number of newly diagnosed cases reported daily overseas has been higher than that of China, and the extent of the increase has been increasing.

③ The number of overseas confirmed cases since March 8 has surpassed China, and the extent of surpassing China has been increasing.

④ The cumulative number of confirmed cases overseas has continued to increase after surpassing China on March 16. It is expected that as long as the testing capabilities of various countries can keep up, and the "three nos" policy of no detection, no statistics, and no treatment is implemented for mild patients, after the cumulative number of overseas reported confirmed cases exceeds 200,000, it is likely to reach 500,000 in April. Even a million.

⑤ More and more countries are more severe than China, and many of them are Western countries. At the same time, there are a number of other countries that are rapidly approaching China, including Western countries such as the United States and Britain.

This year is the United States election year. The combination of domestic political struggle and its foreign policy misunderstanding is likely to severely hinder the ability of the United States to fight the epidemic. We have already seen such a development trend. Better than Europe.

The severity of the outbreak in the UK is also rising. Earlier, the British Prime Minister Johnson announced a "herd immunity" policy, which will implement a "three nos" policy for non-detected, non-statistical and non-medical patients, and only detect and treat critically ill patients. Based on this, it is certain that the actual infection in the UK The number of patients greatly exceeds the officially reported confirmed cases.

What is more noteworthy is that the number of officially reported confirmed cases in some developing countries so far is very small, but they also harbor the risk of an outbreak of a new crown pneumonia outbreak.

Epidemic shock boosts China's trade status with East Asia

China has basically ended the domestic epidemic, and the domestic resumption rate has reached 90%. The South Korean epidemic has been controlled and ushered in an inflection point. The epidemic in Europe and the United States is rapidly spreading and escalating. The epidemic in other emerging market economies is brewing a large outbreak risk ... This reality determines In the reshuffle of the international trade pattern triggered by the epidemic, the trade shares and market influence of China and East Asia will generally rise.

In contrast, the soft and hard power of Europe, which has been reduced to the epicenter of the current global epidemic, has suffered significant trauma, with its internal cohesion scattered and its weak ability to act exposed. It is certain that in the reshuffle of the international trade pattern caused by the impact of the epidemic, Europe's market share and influence will decline significantly.

The worst-hit countries are likely to be the primary exporting countries. The expected growth of the world economy and trade this year is already poor, and the outbreak has made it worse. Global demand for primary energy products, such as energy, has fallen throughout the year, which is basically a foregone conclusion. The deterioration of the external environment has weakened the internal cohesion of the primary product cartels represented by OPEC. The oil price war that shocked the global market in March was therefore inevitable, and the economies of primary product exporting countries were severely damaged, which may lead to the export of primary products in some developing countries. China detonated economic and political turmoil.

From a neutral and objective standpoint, at the time when the wildfire of the new crown epidemic was burning all over the world, China, the world's largest manufacturing country and the largest exporting country, became an "oasis" of the end of the local epidemic. Trade stability is a blessing.

For this reason, on the basis of ensuring the domestic "oasis" environment, China must play the role of a global "arms factory" in the supply of anti-epidemic materials on the one hand, and on the other hand, it must show greater responsibility for maintaining the normal operation of the global trading system. In addition to adhering to an open economy and multilateral trade, China also needs to work hard to carry out international cooperation to help maintain the normal operation of the throat node of international trade logistics and prevent disruptions and interruptions from the impact of the epidemic.

In view of this, it is necessary for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments to arrange the throat nodes of international trade logistics in advance to avoid uncontrolled immunity and seriously affect China and the world's foreign trade logistics. (Mei Xinyu)