Experts said that the epidemic situation was under obvious control throughout the country, and the resumption of work and production activities in various places had been fully launched, and various national support policies had been put in place. It is expected that credit will increase significantly in March.

With the improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the resumption of work and production in March has been fully implemented.

As a key epidemic area in Hubei Province, there is a positive signal from the resumption of production and work. On March 11, the Hubei Provincial New Coronavirus Infectious Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters issued the latest notice (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). Hubei Province divided the low, medium, and high risk areas into counties as a unit, and implemented differentiated zoning. For prevention and control, enterprises should resume work and production at different times in a classified manner. Enterprises in specific industries implement flexible and dynamic management.

"This announcement has released a clear signal of resumption of work and resumption of production. Local governments, especially those in low-risk areas, should devote most of their energy under the premise of prevention and control to promote the resumption of production." Wuhan University China New Private Economy Research Center director Luo Zhi told First Financial.

In provinces outside Hubei, most of them have resumed production and resumed work for one month since February 10. According to the latest news, as of the 10th, the total number of resumption of industrial enterprises above designated size in Jiangsu Province was 44,900, with 99% of them returning to work; the number of returning workers was 7.02 million, accounting for 84% of the workforce of returning enterprises. In Guangdong, as of March 8th, the resumption rate of enterprises in the province has reached 93.7%, of which 93.9% is in the manufacturing industry.

It is noteworthy that the central bank released the latest social financial credit data on the 11th. In general, at the end of February, the broad money (M2) grew at a rate of 8.8%, a marked increase from the previous month; the balance of social financing scale increased by 10.7%, and the growth rate of credit was 12.1%, both in line with the previous month and maintaining a reasonable growth momentum .

Experts interviewed by CBN reporters believe that February is still a period when the epidemic is more severe, and the production activities of enterprises and residents are affected, which has a certain degree of drag on the growth rate of credit and social financing. However, in this case, there was no negative growth, and a reasonable increase was still maintained, which indicates that credit activities are still active with the support of a series of national policies.

At the same time, Premier Li Keqiang hosted an executive meeting of the State Council on March 10 to determine new measures to deal with the impact of the epidemic and stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment; deploy further smoothing of the capital chain of the industrial chain, and promote the coordinated resumption of work and production in all aspects; and require better use of special The role of the rediscount loan policy supports the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of enterprises' relief.

Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping said to China Business News that the epidemic situation has been under significant control throughout the country, that the work of resuming production and restarting production in various places has been fully launched, and that various national support policies have been implemented. It is expected that credit will increase in March. Increase in magnitude.

Hubei resumed production and resumption plan

According to the "Notice", Hubei first divided the province into four districts, namely Wuhan, (high epidemic) high-risk areas, medium-risk areas, and low-risk areas. Hubei has previously divided 76 provinces, cities, and counties into high-, medium-, and low-risk areas according to the risk level of the epidemic, of which Wuhan is a high-risk area. Because it is the source of the outbreak and there are still new cases, Wuhan is under stricter control.

According to official data, as of 24:00 on March 9, there were 45 low-risk cities and counties in Hubei including Macheng and Wuxue. 19 medium-risk cities and counties, including the five cities of Jingzhou, Xiangyang, Xiaogan, Xianning and Jingmen. There are 12 high-risk cities and counties, including Wuhan, Huanggang, Ezhou, urban areas and Qianjiang City.

Not only are the divisions of resumption and resumption of production zoning, resumption enterprises also promoted according to their priorities. As the center of gravity of Hubei's economy, the resumption of business in Wuhan is the focus. The "Announcement" clearly states that five types of enterprises in Wuhan can resume work and resume production, which are: necessary for ensuring the prevention and control of epidemics, necessary for the operation of public utilities, necessary for people's livelihood, necessary for agricultural production, and other enterprises involving important national economy and people's livelihood. In addition, enterprises that have not stopped production or business since the Spring Festival in Wuhan can continue production. Other companies will resume production at no later than 24:00 on March 20.

Outside Wuhan, the lower the risk level, the more types of companies can resume work. For high-risk areas outside Wuhan, in addition to the above-mentioned five types of enterprises and non-stop enterprises, financial and insurance, port and freight station yards, key industrial chain supporting enterprises are allowed to undertake orderly, national, provincial and municipal major projects and key projects. Return to work.

The scope of resumption enterprises in medium-risk areas is wider. In addition to the types of enterprises covered in the above-mentioned high-risk areas, it also includes local industrial- and agricultural-industrialized enterprises that use labor and the industrial chain as supporting facilities, and construction enterprises that focus on outdoor operations. Accounting, software information services and other related service companies.

In the low-risk area, the management of the resumed production and production limit list is adopted. That is to say, except for movie theaters, chess and card rooms, catering restaurants and other enterprises with high concentration of personnel and relatively closed places, they can resume production.

Luo Zhi said that even if the above conditions are met, enterprises still need to do a good job of prevention and control related work, which is approved by the county and city New Crown Pneumonia Prevention and Control Headquarters. According to the "Notice", before resuming production and production, enterprises should formulate epidemic prevention and control work plans and emergency treatment plans, and make relevant preparations to ensure that the "five-year plan" for prevention and control mechanisms, staff inspections, facilities and supplies, environmental elimination, and safe production In place. "

An enterprise doing kiln construction in Huanggang City told the First Financial Reporter that according to the types of enterprises currently allowed to resume production and resume production, it is an export-oriented enterprise. The products are mainly sold to other places outside Hubei Province, so it cannot be resumed. need to wait.

In terms of personnel flow, under the strict implementation of the control measures for the Lihan and Lihu channels, Hubei allows personnel in medium-risk and low-risk areas to move safely and orderly in the province based on the health code "Green Code"; Wuhan and other provinces Persons in risk areas can use the “green code” of the health code to flow safely and orderly in the “point-to-point” transportation mode with the inflow provinces.

The Announcement also promotes traffic recovery by district. At present, passenger flights, passenger trains, passenger cars, passenger ships, and city buses in the provinces with medium and low risk areas are gradually restored in an orderly manner on the premise of taking necessary prevention and control measures; Wuhan and other high-risk areas in the province continue Outage.

China Business News reporter noted that some low-risk districts, cities, and counties have begun to promote enterprises to resume work and resume production, and restore economic and social order. Some cities and counties in middle and high risk areas are also starting to resume work.

Open up the industrial chain and supply chain blockpoints

The State Council pointed out that, while implementing precise prevention and control in different regions and regions, it is necessary to orderly promote the resumption of production and production across the entire industry chain in an orderly manner. Specifically, it includes: "Strengthening overall guidance and coordination services, opening up the industrial chain and supply chain blockpoints. Leading enterprises to support supporting enterprises to enhance the momentum of coordinated resumption of production and production."

At the same time, it is necessary to guide financial institutions to actively connect with core enterprises in the industry chain, increase liquidity loan support, and give reasonable credit lines. Support core enterprises to pay cash to upstream and downstream enterprises in the form of prepayment after financing through credit, bonds, etc., and reduce the cash flow pressure and financing costs of upstream and downstream SMEs.

In recent times, relevant departments have guided financial institutions to implement 300 billion yuan of special reloans and 500 billion yuan of reloan rediscount policies in accordance with the requirements of the State Council, and strongly supported the outbreak prevention and control materials guarantee supply, agriculture and enterprises, especially small businesses with preferential interest rates. Micro-enterprises resumed production.

The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to further put policies in place, speed up the progress of loans, and better protect the funding needs of epidemic prevention supplies, spring ploughing, international supply chain product production, labor-intensive industries, and small and medium-sized enterprises. Appropriate decentralization of credit approval authority. Strengthen audit supervision to prevent “ranching and dripping” and improve the effectiveness of supporting the real economy. We will step up the introduction of targeted inflow reduction measures for inclusive finance, and increase the reduction of shareholding banks, promote commercial banks to increase loan support for small and micro enterprises, and individual industrial and commercial households, help resume work and production, and reduce financing costs.

Industry analysis: Currently, the central bank provides preferential interest rate credit support through low-cost special reloans and the central government's discounted interest rates. It is only the first step of structural monetary policy during the epidemic. Means to enhance the momentum of production expansion of small and micro private enterprises.

Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, told First Financial that the current rate of resumption of work in the country has reached 2/3. If the momentum continues to accelerate, it may reach 90% by the end of March, and it will resume work in early April. At this time, the role of further policies will be more significant. He predicts that in the next two or three weeks, China is expected to adopt new policy support in monetary policy, such as guiding MLF and LPR interest rates to be further reduced, adding a total of 30 basis points in the next two months to reduce interest rates, and at the same time expand the fiscal deficit. Increase tax rebates and public health investments.

Lian Ping predicts that the possibility of lowering the RRR and interest rate in March is very high. "The adjustment of financial indicators should be made sooner rather than later, and the epidemic situation has been well controlled. Except Wuhan, the next major task for other low-risk areas is to promote The steady recovery of the economy requires the early implementation of policies. "

Enterprise resumption and production rate steadily increase

As of March 10, the resumption of work for industrial enterprises in Jiangsu has reached 99%; the rate of resumption of work in Guangdong as of the 8th has reached 93.7%.

According to the information released by the State Council Office at a press conference held in Wuhan, Hubei on the 6th, with the exception of Hubei Province, the operating rates of large industrial provinces and industrial enterprises above designated size have mostly exceeded 90%, and Zhejiang and other provinces have exceeded 95%. The company's return to work and production rate has also steadily increased, reaching 52%.

Guangdong, the economy's largest province, has a wind vane significance. According to a quick survey of the monitoring of the fixed-point employment of 15,000 enterprises in Guangdong Province, as of March 8, the situation of resumption of work and production and the return of employees to Guangdong continued to increase. The re-recruitment rate of 15,000 fixed-point monitoring enterprises in the province 93.7%, of which 93.9% are manufacturing industries. The return rate of employees in 15,000 fixed-point monitoring enterprises in the province is 83.8%, of which 82.1% are manufacturing industries.

In Huangjiang, Dongguan, as of March 7, there were 4,932 local companies that resumed work and resumed production. The rate of return to work was 96.18%, and the rate of returning to work was 91.05%. The rate of return to work for key and regulated enterprises was 100%.

"From what I know, the rate of return to work and return to work in our industry has been relatively high." Zhang Ming, head of Guangzhou Dingju Technology Services Co., Ltd., told First Financial, and now the return rate of many office buildings in Guangzhou is also Already higher.

A few days ago, based on massive location data, Gaode Map announced the "Top 100 Popular Offices for Resumption of Work". The list shows that the office buildings in 19 cities across the country are well-known. Currently, the most popular resumed office buildings are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Chengdu and Chongqing. Among them, in Beijing, Wangjing SOHO, Greenland Center, Beijing Oriental Plaza, Global Trade Center and other places. On the list in Shanghai, there are office buildings such as Jing'an New Times Building, Financial Street (Helen) Center, and Pudong Financial Plaza.

Foreign trade export enterprises also have a good momentum of returning to work and production. As an enterprise serving SMEs to go digital, Xiao Bixiang, founder and chairman of Xiamen Gudao Group (foreign trade cattle), told First Financial News that from the current situation, the impact of the epidemic on foreign trade is temporary and temporary. The overall progress of resuming work and production has continued to accelerate. To cope with the impact of the epidemic, companies everywhere are trying offline and online models to learn new ideas for digital transformation.

Luo Xiaohua, president of Guangdong Sanjie Group, a sanitaryware export company in Dongguan, told First Financial that his company's workers have now returned more than 80%. It can be said that except for Hubei employees, almost all of them have returned. The supply of masks that plagued the resumption of work for some time was solved by the local government. There are no problems at present, and the price of masks is very low, and the burden on enterprises is low.

Author: Chen Yi published Linxiao Zhao Xu Yanyan

(First Financial Reporter Zhu Yanran also contributed to this article)