China-Singapore Jingwei Client on March 10 (Zhang Meng) The National Bureau of Statistics announced today (10th) that in February, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points.

In a supermarket in Beijing, instant noodles became a top seller. Zhongxin Jingwei by Yan Shuxin

Statistics Bureau: Residents' hoarding behavior boosts prices

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in February 2020, the national CPI rose by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The national CPI rose by 0.8% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In February, food prices rose 4.3% month-on-month, a drop of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, affecting a CPI increase of approximately 0.98 percentage points; a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, and an impact of a CPI increase of approximately 4.45 percentage points. Among them, the price of pork rose by 9.3% month-on-month, and the growth rate expanded by 0.8 percentage points.

According to the analysis by Zhao Maohong, the director of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, the main reason for the rise in food prices is due to factors such as "home" requirements and "hedging" psychology. Some residents have hoarding behaviors, and some areas have snapped up instant noodles, The phenomenon of easy-to-storage foods such as meat products and quick-frozen foods has even spread to other foods, driving up prices.

Guo Xiaobei, a researcher at the China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, believes that due to the epidemic and the closure of roads and delays in the resumption of work, food supply has been affected. Food prices, which should have fallen after the holiday, have risen, and pork prices hit a new high.

Yang Chang, a senior economist and head of the policy group at the China-Thailand Securities Research Institute, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that from the perspective of meat prices, affected by the epidemic and the possibility of suppressing consumer demand, pig prices in February were month-on-month. The increase did not fall but rose, indicating that the price of pork is still in a state of insufficient supply. In the January-February import data, the quantity of meat has also increased significantly, indicating that the supply is still relatively inadequate. However, in the short term, the impact of meat prices on CPI has not diverged. Therefore, structural policies are used to hedge, and no macro-policy adjustments are required.

What is the future CPI trend?

Looking forward to the future CPI trend, Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, said that affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of consumer prices in February did show an increase, but mainly reflected in food prices. This impact is short-term and unsustainable. With the epidemic situation under control and the recovery of production and life, food prices will soon return to daily levels. As for the trend of CPI throughout the year, it depends on the intensity of policy adjustment in the later period.

Zhang Huaizhi, a fixed income analyst at Dongxing Securities, predicts that throughout the year, the CPI will be at a lower stage after the epidemic. In the second quarter of this year, the CPI is expected to start to descend step by step, and may return to less than 2% by the end of the year.

Upstream financial expert consultant Jiang Han believes that it is unlikely that CPI will continue to rise in the future, and there is no need to worry too much about the CPI increase. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)