(Fighting new crown pneumonia) epidemic hits European economy
China News Agency, Beijing, March 10 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) The epidemic in Europe is getting worse. In an interview with a China News Agency reporter, a Beijing scholar believed that the epidemic situation would make the European economy, which was not optimistic, worsened, and China-EU economic and trade cooperation is facing a test.
In the past ten days, the spread of the new crown pneumonia virus has accelerated in Europe. According to the latest data, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Italy has now exceeded 9,000, with nearly 1,800 new cases in one day; the number of confirmed cases in France has risen to 1,412 and the number of deaths has reached 25; the first two cases of death in Germany have broken the number of confirmed cases. thousand.
In addition to Italy, France, and Germany, the number of confirmed cases in Spain, the Netherlands, and Greece is also rising. The epidemic is still spreading to Eastern Europe and Northern Europe, and confirmed cases have appeared in Poland and Sweden.
At present, Italy has announced a "cities closure" nationwide to curb the spread of the epidemic. Cui Hongjian, director of the European Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of International Studies, said that if the Italian epidemic becomes more severe and cases continue to be exported, it does not rule out that other European countries will also take stricter measures to restrict personnel movements. Considering that mutual trade and investment within European countries are the main pillars of their economic development, if measures such as "cities closure" are implemented on a larger scale, it will disrupt the industrial chain, value chain and supply chain within the European single market. Have a great impact on the economy.
"In recent years, the European economy has not been optimistic, and the recovery momentum is relatively weak. It is expected that the economy will be worsened by the epidemic." Cui Hongjian said.
Earlier, the OECD had cut its forecast for the euro area's economic growth in 2020 to 0.8%, which was lower than the 1.1% expected in November last year. European Central Bank President Lagarde issued a statement saying that the European Central Bank is closely monitoring the development of the epidemic and its impact on macroeconomic, medium-term inflation and monetary policy transmission, and is ready to take appropriate and targeted measures when necessary.
However, in the view of Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of the China International Economic Exchange Center, there are not many options for "targeted measures" in Europe: monetary policy is already a negative interest rate, and the debt rate is still high. The impact "the space is already very small."
If the European economy is not good, China-EU economic and trade cooperation will inevitably face tests.
For a long time, the EU has been China's largest trading partner and largest source of imports. However, according to Chinese statistics, China-EU trade volume fell 14.2% year-on-year in January-February this year, and China-ASEAN trade volume increased 2% year-on-year. ASEAN has replaced the EU as China's largest trading partner.
Cui Hongjian admits that in recent years, China-EU trade has been in a "bottleneck period". On the one hand, the market space has been saturated and there is a lack of new growth points; on the other hand, trade protectionism has also hindered bilateral trade. If these problems are not properly solved, the spread of the epidemic situation will not be curbed as soon as possible. Under the superimposition of "old diseases and new diseases", China-EU trade volume may experience negative growth this year.
In addition, according to the China Merchants Securities Research Report, the export volume of chemical products in Germany, Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and other countries that were severely affected by the epidemic is relatively large, and intermediate products are mainly exported. If the epidemic situation further intensifies, it may have a negative impact on China's related industries.
In terms of investment, affected by factors such as China's curbment of irrational investment and the strengthening of European censorship of foreign investment, Chinese investment in the European Union has declined significantly in recent years. Official data show that China's investment in the EU in the first three quarters of 2019 was only US $ 4.98 billion, less than half of China's investment in the EU in 2017.
Cui Hongjian predicts that China ’s investment in the EU will continue to be low overall under the epidemic, but it does not rule out that some regions and industries will have new cooperation space. For example, if the Italian epidemic is brought under control, in order to restore the economy as soon as possible, the country may welcome foreign investment more, which will bring opportunities for Chinese investors. In addition, in order to ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain, some Chinese companies may be more willing to invest in the EU. (Finish)