Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, most industries slowed down the "opening" time after the holiday, which is particularly evident in the real estate industry.
On March 2nd, a real estate agent from Majiapu, Fengtai District, Beijing told the Securities Daily reporter that after the Spring Festival each year, the real estate market activity will increase, but the number of house buyers this year has plummeted.
"It's not just me. My store hasn't opened an order since the Spring Festival until now." The real estate agent said.
In fact, after the outbreak, in order to further stabilize the real estate market, many cities have successively introduced policies related to the property market. According to the data provided by the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in February alone, more than 60 cities issued varying degrees of real estate regulation and control policies, including relaxing pre-sale conditions, reducing pressure on corporate funds, delaying the monthly provident fund reserve and reducing the down payment ratio of the provident fund. Wait. Among them, most are third- and fourth-tier cities.
58 Bo Zhang, Dean of the Anju Guest House Product Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the third and fourth tier cities have moderately relaxed their property market regulation policies. Although there are epidemic factors, there are other factors, the most important of which is the market. Expectations for later cooling are increasing.
Zhang Bo believes that, on the one hand, since 2017, the regulation of the property market in third- and fourth-tier cities has been generally less than that in first- and second-tier cities. In addition, the completion of multiple shed reform tasks in 2019 has affected the demand for house purchases. On the other hand, In the "grabbing" war that was launched in various cities in the year, the attractiveness of third- and fourth-tier cities was relatively weak, resulting in insufficient new demand in the future.
Dongfang Jincheng real estate industry senior analyst Xie Rui also expressed a similar point of view in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter. Compared with the first and second tier cities, the industry and population factors in the third and fourth tier cities generally support real estate more strongly. Weakness, and the weakening of the overdraft and overdraft monetization reform in the previous market's purchasing power has made the prosperity of the real estate market in some third and fourth tier cities face downward pressure. In this context, the occurrence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic further inhibited the demand of third- and fourth-tier cities to return to their homes, which made housing enterprises in third- and fourth-tier cities more stressed in the short term. Therefore, the recent real estate policies introduced in some places are to some extent to help enterprises "overcome difficulties", the main focus of which is to help housing companies to ease liquidity tensions and other issues.
It is worth noting that although “stability maintenance” policies frequently appear in various places, the regulators have always paid close attention to policies that may stimulate demand for home purchases.
Taking Zhumadian City, Henan Province's previous real estate policy as an example, whether it is to reduce the provident fund down payment ratio, implement housing purchase subsidies, or reduce the cost of mortgage loans, it will stimulate individual housing purchase demand to a certain extent. Against this background, the Henan Provincial Party Committee and Provincial Government interviewed the People's Government of Zhumadian City on February 28 and asked them to improve their political standing, insist that the house be used for living, not for speculation, and effectively implement the city The main responsibility is to maintain the continuity and stability of real estate regulation and control policies, not to use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term, and to achieve the goal of stable prices and stable house prices.
Xie Rui said that this shows that the current real estate market will still adhere to the "red housing and not speculation" policy red line. It is expected that similar policy loosening content will not appear in third- and fourth-tier cities in the future, but it does not rule out that some cities that have been greatly affected by the epidemic or have high demand-side pressures will issue similar stimulating policies. On the whole, the city's regulation and control policies on the local property market should continue to focus on fine-tuning rather than substantial relaxation. The policy should strengthen support for local housing enterprises and reduce large-scale stimulus to housing purchase demand.
Looking ahead, Zhang Bo predicts that the real estate market as a whole may relax slightly in 2020, but this does not mean that the first and second-tier core cities will experience a major relaxation of policies, especially the restrictions on purchase and loan restrictions, and will be relatively cautious. (Securities Daily)
Our reporter Du Yumeng