The central government reiterates that "housing, living and not speculating" will introduce more real estate supply-side policies
Strategies for the city and self-help by housing companies in the epidemic
● Affected by the epidemic, the real estate industry will usher in a new round of reshuffle. Those housing companies that rely on high turnover of repatriated funds or have more layouts in areas with high epidemic situations may risk the risk of a broken capital chain; buyers ’home buying ideas will also occur Changes, areas with stronger government governance and more per capita medical resources may be favored in the future
● Real estate supply-side policies continue to be introduced in many places, mainly at the industry level, mainly to ease the pressure on developers' funds, but the keynote is still "do not live in real estate" or "strategy according to the city"
● Facing the impact of the epidemic, on the one hand, the current regulatory policy should still adhere to the principle of "no housing and speculation"; on the other hand, based on reality, the real estate industry should be given phased and marginal policy easing to stabilize the funds of housing enterprises. To avoid large negative spillover effects on the economy and financial system
The sales office is closed, the intermediary business is postponed, and the construction period of the project under construction is extended ... For the real estate industry, the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is not only that all transactions, production and operations during the Spring Festival have pressed the pause button, but also that The "Gold, Silver, and Silver" that was originally expected may become a bubble.
"Legal Daily" reporter combed and found that at least 20 provinces and cities have issued policies on real estate, which involves relaxing the time limit for land transfer fees, taxes and fees, and even relaxing pre-sale conditions.
But this does not mean that the wind of real estate regulation has changed. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance, the Bureau of Statistics, the Central Bank and other departments are also making intensive voices, reiterating the need to adhere to the "housing and housing speculation" positioning, and re-emphasizing "not using real estate as a short-term economic stimulus."
What exactly does this mean? Experts in the industry said in an interview with "Legal Daily" that the above-mentioned local policies should not be regarded as a signal to relax or stimulate real estate. The central government's determination to adhere to "no housing or speculation" has not wavered, and house prices will not fluctuate. It is worth noting that this epidemic changed many people's buying ideas. Looking ahead, regions with strong government governance and more per capita medical resources may be favored.
Epidemic hits property market shutdown
Real estate companies initiate online self-help
On February 13, Evergrande announced the implementation of marketing measures for online purchases of all real estate in the country, which caused heated discussions. For a 25% discount, you can reserve a house by paying a deposit of 5,000 yuan. Before May 10th, buyers will enjoy the lowest price right to buy a house ... the intensity is not small.
Since then, Fangduo Duo has launched a small order treasure and an online sales office, and a set of additional 5,000 yuan rebate; Shell Finding House announced a reduction of two months of business platform fees in 106 cities, launched the VR sales department; Anjuke launched The “Anshin Online House Buying Season” gathered more than 5,000 real estate promotions and connected buyers and developers with VR sales offices; R & F Group launched the “Good House, Online Shopping Bar” innovative marketing campaign, including “National Marketing + Online Sale” "House + house purchase discount + no reason to check out + compensation for difference"; Shimao launched its own "three major plans" for selling houses online, a lot of concessions.
Selling a house online has become a self-help model for housing companies to "live". How effective is it? "Legal Daily" reporter recently contacted a salesperson of a housing company as a home buyer and found that there was no so-called "slow hand" phenomenon. Many days have passed since the promotion, and there are still many options available. The reporter of the Legal Daily has been contacted many times, hoping to help him "rush performance".
However, selling a house online has a positive significance for the self-help of housing companies. Taking Evergrande as an example, a set of sales data recently announced looks pretty good. Chen Xinjie, a researcher at the Far East Credit Research Department, told the reporter of the Legal Daily that although Evergrande is caught in the controversy of "price increase first and then discount", "the activity may have moisture, but it is still attractive to home buyers." The psychology of home buyers has greatly improved the customer storage capacity of the online sales model through promotions, which is conducive to accelerating the payment.
Some people call online sales the "life-saving straw" of the real estate industry. In the past few days, under the impact of the epidemic, the real estate industry has a series of unusual operations: not only "selling houses online", but also "X days no reason to check out", "net red drainage" and other means desperately to attract customers.
Since the outbreak, the property market has almost been shut down. During the Spring Festival, many large cities across the country saw zero deals and zero supply.
A report disclosed by Far East Credit Card to the reporter of the "Legal System Daily" shows that since January 23, more than 100 cities have temporarily closed offline sales offices of commercial housing and suspended real estate transaction activities. In order to reverse the situation, housing companies have set up online sales offices. Due to the inability to achieve offline viewing and signing of contracts, the online sales offices have been ineffective, and the sales of commercial housing in New York City until February 9 have basically stopped.
"In the past, the Spring Festival was a boom period for returning home buyers, but affected by the epidemic this year, the marketing of housing companies during the Spring Festival has stopped. This part of the demand has basically disappeared. From the current situation, the main cities for return home purchases (basically some of the third and fourth tiers) (Cities) will be more affected. "Chen Xinjie said, conservatively estimates that from January to February the national area of commercial housing sales fell by 50% year-on-year, in 2020 the national commercial housing sales area will decline at least 4.6% year-on-year.
Chen Xinjie added that the premise of the above forecast is that the epidemic situation can be effectively controlled in the short term. If the epidemic situation lasts for a long time, it will have a greater impact on the sales area of commercial housing throughout the year. From January to February in previous years, the sales season of commercial housing was usually low, and the sales area generally accounted for about 8% to 8.5% of the whole year. The epidemic will inevitably have a huge impact on the sales of commercial housing in the short term, but the long-term impact will be limited. "However, from any perspective, the negative impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on real estate sales in 2020 will exceed the SARS epidemic."
At the same time, the report said, "Affected by the epidemic, commercial property rental income has fallen sharply in the short term, and the longer-term impact is that if the epidemic causes less-than-expected macroeconomic growth, sluggish consumption, and loss of confidence in shopping malls and triggering a wave of rental retreat, commercial real estate The impact will be even greater. "
After the epidemic, the number of residents shopping in malls has decreased significantly. At the same time, except in first-tier cities, most provinces and cities have closed their stores during the Spring Festival (except supermarkets and drug stores, with an overall opening rate of about 40% to 50%). Burden, the rent-off rate of merchants has increased significantly.
From the end of January to the beginning of February, a number of commercial real estate companies announced the implementation of rent reductions of different sizes for their commercial tenants. The industry estimates that Wanda Commercial Management Group alone has reduced or exempted more than 3 billion yuan.
Prevent the risk of capital chain break
Price reduction promotion speeds up payment
While the demand side is impacted, the supply side also has problems. First, both the supply and demand sides of the land market have fallen sharply in the short term. In order to meet the requirements of epidemic control and avoid crowd gathering on the spot, Beijing, Chongqing, Wuhan, Shanghai, Shijiazhuang, Fuzhou, Suzhou, Tianjin, Nantong and other cities have postponed the land auction time, and the transfer time has been postponed for several days, leading to late January. Both land supply and transactions have fallen sharply.
In January, the 300-city supply land area released by the Middle Finger Research Institute shrank by nearly 70% month-on-month and shrank by 40% year-on-year; the transaction land area fell by over 70% month-on-month and fell by nearly 50% year-on-year.
"From the perspective of the past, the government usually chooses to concentrate land supply in the second half of the year, especially at the end of the year. The first half of the year is often less than half of the annual land supply plan. The emergence of this epidemic led to the first quarter and even the first half of the government. The land supply plan has been greatly affected, coupled with tax cuts during the epidemic, and a sharp increase in public financial expenditure. After the epidemic, there may be the possibility of accelerating land supply. "The report believes that the epidemic may affect the rhythm of the land market. "But from a macro perspective, the overall heat has not been affected, and the stable recovery of the land market is just around the corner."
In addition, due to the delay in the resumption of work by construction companies, the construction behavior of housing companies and the progress of projects throughout the year will also be affected. This means that the new market is delayed, and the growth rate of real estate investment has steadily declined. "In the first quarter, there was a huge loss in newly started construction area, and land purchase fees were also affected to some extent. It is estimated that the total amount of real estate development investment completed in the first quarter of 2020 will decrease by 19.5%. If the epidemic can be controlled in the first quarter, follow-up will be ignored. The impact of the month, it is estimated that real estate investment growth in 2020 is about 4.5%. "Chen Xinjie said.
The real estate industry will also usher in a new round of reshuffle. The report asserts that the first quarter sales data of real estate companies across the country will be almost cut, and the epidemic situation has brought a huge impact on the sales of real estate companies. Those housing companies that rely on high turnover funds or have more distribution in areas with high epidemic conditions will be under great pressure. There is a risk that the capital chain will break.
According to statistics, there were 221 mergers and acquisitions in the real estate industry in 2019, and the scale of mergers and acquisitions reached 184.06 billion yuan. Some outstanding 10 billion real estate companies had multiple mergers and acquisitions in 2019, and the industry concentration has increased accordingly. The financing channels of the housing companies that are in the lower rankings have obviously narrowed, raising financing costs. "If the epidemic causes these small and medium-sized real estate companies to break the capital chain and close down, it will further increase the concentration of the real estate industry." Chen Xinjie said.
The report said that after the epidemic, most housing companies are expected to use price cuts to speed up the payment. In the short term, this method does get more cash flow, but because some small and medium-sized housing companies have limited financing, these cash flows are more Mostly used for debt repayment, and the substantial price reduction promotion will strengthen the expectation of falling house prices, which is not conducive to subsequent sales recovery. Therefore, for housing companies that rely too much on external financing, the credit risk is relatively high. Once the capital chain is broken, there will be defaults and even bankruptcy. Especially for real estate companies that use a large amount of direct financing for bonds, debt maturity will not be delayed due to slowing sales. If the real estate company's own liquidity is tight and short-term sales recovery is less than expected, it will face greater compensation. Debt and financing pressure.
"At present, the most prominent problem in the real estate industry is that some real estate companies are facing the risk of tight or even broken capital chains." Said Xu Qiyuan, a researcher at the Institute of Economics and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
"Do not live in the house" tone has not changed
Buying ideas may change
In this context, not only housing enterprises initiated "self-help", many governments have also introduced policies. Only in the five days from February 11th to 15th, there were Shanghai, Xi'an, Wuxi, Tianjin, Fuzhou and other places to adjust the payment period of land transfer payments, allowing enterprises affected by the epidemic to apply for extension of payment of land transfer payments. No late fees are charged.
Shanghai, Zhejiang, Wuxi, Tianjin, and Fuzhou have extended the completion period of the project. The land transfer contract's performance time requirements for the completion and operation of the project can be automatically postponed according to the epidemic situation, and no breach of contract will be charged.
Wuxi and Fuzhou adjusted the real estate pre-sale conditions. During the epidemic prevention and control period, the pre-sale portion reached more than 25% of the total investment amount, and the approval procedures for the pre-sale of commercial houses were processed according to regulations.
Zhejiang, Xi'an, Wuxi, and Guangxi promote online approval services and implement "in-person" registration of real estate registration to help real estate development and intermediary companies facilitate transactions.
"These policies have alleviated the financial pressure on housing companies to some extent, but given that the inflection point of the epidemic has not yet been fully defined, there is still a lot of uncertainty." The report states that under the guidance of the "policy-by-city policy" guidance, all cities have There is some room for independent regulation. It is expected that more cities will introduce similar support policies in the future, but these policies should not be regarded as signals to relax or stimulate real estate.
Especially from February 16th to 19th, within only 4 days, the Ministry of Finance, the Bureau of Statistics, the Central Bank, and other departments intensified their voices, reiterated that they should adhere to the "housing and living without speculation" positioning, and emphasized again "no real estate as a short-term stimulus" Economic means ".
Yang Qiuling, Chairman of Far East Credit and a member of the National Asset Management Standardization Technical Committee, believes that the real estate supply-side policies have continued to be introduced in many places, mainly at the industry level, mainly to alleviate the pressure on developers' funds, but the keynote is still "housing and living without speculation." "Strategy for the city".
Ni Pengfei, director of the Urban and Competitiveness Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that this shows that the decision-makers have full confidence in the Chinese economy and real estate market. It is also a clear signal to the market that the policy is unchanged, and it also sends a clear policy to local governments. Guidelines.
Xu Qiyuan said that in the face of the impact of the epidemic, on the one hand the current regulatory policy should still adhere to the "no housing and speculation" principle; on the other hand, based on reality, the real estate industry should be given phased and marginal policies to relax housing and stabilize housing. The capital flow of enterprises should avoid large negative spillover effects on the economy and financial system. Specifically, first, the policy should treat the real estate industry equally and provide credit relief for it; second, moderately relax the restrictions on regulatory quotas; third, appropriately reduce taxes and fees, and adjust payment deadlines as appropriate; fourth, encourage and guide local governments The government "strategized for the city" and "strategized for the enterprise" appropriately increased targeted support.
In general, in the industry's opinion, the keynote of the property market regulation in 2020 will still be stability, and the real estate market will generally stabilize, and house prices will not fluctuate. But for homebuyers, one thing is expected to change.
"This epidemic has also changed the concept of house purchase by many people. Looking ahead, areas with strong government governance and more per capita medical resources may be more favored, and more attention will be paid to the service quality of property management companies when selecting real estate. . The homeless people re-recognize the importance of the house, there may be some new housing purchase demand after the epidemic is over. "Chen Xinjie said.
□ Our reporter Zhang Wei