Three rulers to see how the epidemic affects the economy

(Fighting New Crown Pneumonia) Three Rulers to See How the Epidemic Affects the Economy

China News Agency, Beijing, March 2th: Three scales to see how the epidemic affects the economy

China News Agency reporter Li Xiaoyu

To what extent will the epidemic affect the economy? To make an accurate assessment, the answers to three questions are essential.

Can the Chinese economic engine restart?

The spread of the epidemic caused many factories in China to shut down for a time. The New York Times previously reported that, even if significant progress has been made in the prevention and control of the epidemic, it will not be easy to restart the Chinese economic engine.

However, in fact, China has already stepped up its efforts to resume business and resume production.

The resumption rate of industrial enterprises above designated size is gradually increasing. Official data show that as of February 24, Zhejiang has exceeded 90%, and Jiangsu, Shandong, Fujian, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Jiangxi also exceeded 70%. The resumption rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has also steadily increased. Currently, 7 provinces have exceeded 40%.

More and more supermarkets, convenience stores and shopping malls reopened. According to official statistics, 95% of large supermarket chains have already opened, and the opening rate of brand convenience stores is also about 80%.

Former World Bank economist Mwangi-Wajira said that China has slowly resumed production, and the epidemic will not harm China's economic relations with the rest of the world and will not affect China's status as the world's second largest economy .

American economist Anawadi also said that with the gradual control of the epidemic, especially the gradual return to work and production, China's economy is expected to recover soon.

Will China push for large-scale stimulus again?

Under the impact of the epidemic, speculation about China may resume its large-scale demand stimulus. Some foreign media predict that China will launch a comprehensive stimulus package as early as mid-March.

"Obviously this idea is still based on the situation in the past, and considers the problem according to the previous logic. For example, if there is insufficient demand, then it stimulates demand." Liu Shangxi, member of the Economic Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and president of the China Academy of Financial Sciences, accepted the China News Agency. The reporter stated in an interview that the main problem of the current Chinese economy is not at the demand side, but at the supply side. The supply of factors, especially the resumption of labor, has been affected by the epidemic. The flow of people and logistics has not been completely opened. The industrial chain and the supply chain cannot Smooth operation, lack of necessary conditions for the resumption of production and production. In this case, "it is ineffective to solve the current problem by stimulating demand.

A few days ago, the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee has made it clear that proactive fiscal policy must be more proactive and prudent monetary policy must pay more attention to flexibility and moderation.

Chen Wenling, chief economist of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the requirement for "promising" policies has determined that China cannot pursue strong floods in the form of floods, because only precise policies can reflect structural characteristics and counter cycle. Adjustment can be effective.

Can the world strengthen economic cooperation?

Right now, the epidemic is accelerating globally. According to official data, in Asia, South Korea has more than 4,000 confirmed cases, Japan has close to 1,000 cases; Italy has accumulated nearly 1,700 confirmed cases ...

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the world economic growth rate this year is still expected to reach 3.2%. "Now it seems that the IMF report may be a little optimistic," said Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of the China International Economic Exchange Center. If the global situation can be effectively controlled in the first quarter in the first quarter, then the world economy is expected to be faster Back to the normal track, the annual growth rate may be close to the IMF forecast value, or slightly worse. If it cannot be controlled within the first quarter, the world economic growth rate this year will not be ruled out to fall below 3%.

In addition, Oxford Economic Consulting predicts that the epidemic will have a "short but very severe impact" on the world economy, and global GDP may lose $ 1.1 trillion.

"This epidemic is a common test for the whole world. If countries cooperate well, it will be possible to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the economy; otherwise, it cannot be ruled out that the epidemic will be the trigger for a new global economic crisis. The country can sit idly by, "said Liu Ying, a researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University of China.