On Monday, March 2, the Russian currency is showing mixed dynamics on the Moscow Exchange. At the beginning of trading, the dollar fell 1.1% to 66.1 rubles, and the euro fell 0.8% to 73.2 rubles. However, in the afternoon, the values ​​began to grow - the dollar rose to 67.2 rubles, and the euro for the first time since February 2019 reached 75 rubles.

The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on March 3 was 66.33 rubles per dollar and 73.42 rubles per euro.

A sharp depreciation of the national currency started last week. According to RT analysts surveyed, the main cause of the negative dynamics was global panic in the financial markets. So, according to them, from Monday to Friday, stock quotes in most countries of the world fell by an average of 4% per day.

Investor sentiment worsened after news of accelerating the spread of coronavirus outside mainland China. Players began to fear a slowdown in the global economy and began to massively sell securities and risky currencies.

“As the situation with the disease worsened, countries began to block air travel and restrict container traffic. As a result, the logistics business and the entire world trade as a whole suffered. Moreover, Chinese enterprises were forced to close for a long period of time, which will now inevitably affect the economy of China. At the same time, global demand for energy and other resources is declining, ”said Finam analyst Alexei Korenev.

Against the background of the possible consequences of the coronavirus, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has worsened its forecast for global GDP growth in 2020 from 2.9% to 2.4%.

Recall that at the end of December 2019, authorities in Chinese Wuhan reported an outbreak of a respiratory infection of unknown origin. According to local experts, the cause of the disease was a new type of coronavirus - SARS-CoV-2. To date, according to the State Committee for Health of China, the number of infected in the PRC has exceeded 80 thousand, 2912 of them have died.

According to recent data, the number of infected people in the world exceeded 89.8 thousand. Outside of mainland China, the most cases were recorded in South Korea (4335 people), Italy (1696), Iran (1501) and Japan (979 people, including those infected with Diamond Princess Cruise Ship).

“The market situation is still fragile and tense, but players are counting on retaliatory measures from global regulators. As expected, already in mid-March, the US Federal Reserve may lower its interest rate to make money and loans cheaper to stimulate investment. This should trigger an influx of funds into the stock and commodity markets. Similar actions are expected from the European Central Bank, ”said Mark Goichmann, TeleTrade chief analyst, to RT.

Barrel pressure

To a certain extent, a weakening Russian currency was also affected by a record drop in oil prices. As a result of a reduction in energy demand, the cost of raw materials of the Brent benchmark brand at February 28 auction fell below $ 49 per barrel. This happened for the first time since the summer of 2017.

However, on March 2, quotes began to recover and exceeded the psychological mark of $ 50 per barrel. Experts associate investor optimism with the upcoming meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC + deal. As expected, from March 5 to 6, hydrocarbon exporter states may agree on an additional reduction in oil production. The actions of manufacturers of raw materials will restore the balance of supply and demand in the market and stabilize prices.

“Saudi Arabia has already voluntarily reduced supplies to the world market by 500 thousand barrels per day. Similar steps are expected from other oil producers, including Russia. If at the next meeting a decision is made to reduce production in at least several OPEC + countries, this will significantly support hydrocarbon quotes. For the ruble, this will be a definite positive, ”added Alexey Korenev.

Meanwhile, the influence of oil prices on the ruble is constrained by the budget rule. This was announced on February 28 by the Minister of Finance of Russia Anton Siluanov. According to the budget rule, during the rise in price of hydrocarbons, the Ministry of Finance through the Central Bank buys foreign currency and thereby puts pressure on the ruble. Moreover, in the event of a collapse of the energy market, the ministry ceases operations and pressure on the ruble weakens.

According to Alexei Korenev, with a significant reduction in oil prices, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank can reduce the purchase of foreign currency and support the national currency. However, Anton Siluanov still considers this decision premature. According to him, the recent depreciation of oil does not threaten the economy.

“Our base price is $ 42 per barrel, in principle, at such a price we balance the budget, and this protects us,” RIA Novosti quoted Siluanov as saying.

Currency fluctuations

In general, RT analysts interviewed differently assess the possible change in the dollar and euro against the ruble in the spring. So, in the coming months, the situation will continue to largely depend on the dynamics of the spread of coronavirus in the world. At the same time, experts do not expect a significant weakening of the ruble.

“The impact factors on the ruble remain controversial and not sufficiently predictable. Depending on their dynamics, the Russian currency in the coming months is likely to fluctuate in a wide enough, but not critical range. So, the dollar exchange rate will be in the region of 65–70 rubles, and the euro exchange rate will be near 72–76 rubles, ”said Mark Goikhman.

At the same time, Alexey Korenev highly appreciates the likelihood of a decrease in global market panic. According to the analyst, in this case, the dollar will remain below the mark of 70 rubles.

“According to the situation with coronavirus, we are now observing information hysteria, although much more people die every year from the usual flu. I think that over time this hysteria will come to naught. In China, the growth rate of the number of cases decreases, in other countries the situation will be approximately the same. Thus, the information line, which puts pressure on the markets, will disappear. Up to this point, the rate will fluctuate in the range of 64–68 rubles, ”Korenev concluded.