The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has worsened its forecast for global GDP growth in 2020 from 2.9% to 2.4%. The main reason for the inhibition of the global economy, experts called the possible consequences of coronavirus.
“Before the outbreak of coronavirus, global economic growth was weak but stable. However, restrictions on the movement of people, goods and services, as well as the introduction of measures to contain the virus, such as closing factories, have caused a sharp decline in China's production and domestic demand. The influence of this factor on the rest of the world is growing due to the situation in tourism, trade in goods and raw materials, as well as due to a decrease in consumer confidence, ”the OECD report says.
At the end of December 2019, authorities in Chinese Wuhan reported an outbreak of a respiratory infection of unknown origin. According to local experts, the cause of the disease was a new type of coronavirus - SARS-CoV-2. To date, according to the State Committee for Health of China, the number of infected in the PRC has exceeded 80 thousand, 2912 of them have died.
According to recent estimates, the total number of infected people in the world has reached 90 thousand. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), to date, the infection has spread to 58 countries. Outside of mainland China, most cases were reported in South Korea (4,335 people), Italy (2036), Iran (1501), and Japan (979 people, including those infected with the Diamond Princess cruise ship).
The aggravation of the disease has already provoked a collapse in the global stock market. Investors are alarmed by the information about the restriction by many countries of cargo transportation and the blocking of flights with the Asian Republic. In addition to the decline in world trade, the current state of affairs may adversely affect the global tourism industry. About this RT said the first vice president of the all-Russian public organization of small and medium-sized enterprises "Support of Russia" Pavel Sigal.
“The countries with the highest number of cases will suffer the greatest losses. For example, it is safe to say that the decline in tourist flow this season will hit all over Europe, since the movement of people inside the Schengen area is not limited yet, and this will certainly lead to an increase in the number of cases not only in Italy, ”the expert believes.
Against the backdrop of the spread of coronavirus since the beginning of 2020, the European tourism industry has already lost about € 1 billion. This was announced on Monday, March 2, European Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton.
“Since January, the European tourism sector has missed 2 million travelers, which means a loss of € 1 billion per month. I want to remind you that Chinese tourists came to Europe in large numbers, but this has not happened for two months now, ”Breton quotes TASS.
The coronavirus epidemic is risking multibillion-dollar losses for the entire global tourism sector. The corresponding calculations were made by experts from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) and experts from Oxford Economics.
“According to preliminary estimates, the crisis will cost the sector at least $ 22 billion. These calculations are based on the experience of previous crises (tourism industry. - RT ), such as an epidemic of SARS or swine flu,” WTTC head Gloria Guevara told the newspaper El Mundo. .
According to her, the most acute problem may affect the Asian states. First of all, we are talking about China, where tourism accounts for about 11% of GDP. In addition to China, Thailand, Cambodia and the Philippines are also at risk. This is stated in the report of Oxford Economics.
According to the organization, if the spread of the disease cannot be stopped in the coming months, the possible losses of the global tourism industry could reach $ 49 billion, and later increase to $ 73 billion.
“At the moment, Thailand has already announced losses of about $ 2 billion. Vietnam may have similar indicators. But Japan can suffer the most massive losses if the virus spreads so wide that it will have to cancel the Olympic Games. Insurers will incur losses of tens of billions of dollars, and the flow of tourists risks stopping altogether, ”said Ivan Kapustyansky, Forex Optimum Lead Analyst, RT.
In general, analysts negatively assess the prospects for the global tourism industry in the near future. According to RT financial analyst at BCS Premier Sergey Deineka, even if a coronavirus vaccine is created, a full recovery of the sector may take at least six months.
“It can be assumed that in an optimistic scenario, tourist activity can only recover to pre-viral levels after 6-12 months,” said Deineka.