(Combating New Crown Pneumonia) Middle Finger Hospital: The property market in March may still be under pressure and is expected to gradually recover in the second quarter

China News Agency, Beijing, March 2 (Reporter Pang Wuji) Cao Jingjing, deputy director of research at the R & D Center of the China Index Research Institute, pointed out at a market situation analysis meeting on the 2nd that under the influence of the epidemic, short-term adjustments in the Chinese real estate market are inevitable. It is expected that 3 The market will still be under pressure in the month. After the second quarter of this year, demand in the property market is expected to gradually recover.

During the whole month of February, China's real estate market was under the influence of the epidemic, with short-term adjustments apparent. The data released by the Middle Finger Index recently showed that in February, the prices of new homes in 100 cities in China fell slightly by 0.24%. The reporter noticed that this is the first time since May 2015 that the index has gone up in the “negative growth” range.

Property market transactions have also dropped significantly. According to the statistics of the Middle Finger Institute, from January to February 2020, the average monthly transaction area of ​​commercial housing in 50 key cities in China was about 12.44 million square meters, the lowest transaction scale since 2013, a year-on-year decrease of 39.4%.

The second-hand housing market is also cooling. According to the data released by the Shell Research Institute, from January to February 2020, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in 18 cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Wuhan fell by 55% year-on-year. Among them, the transaction prices of second-hand housing in many cities also fell. .

Cao Jingjing pointed out that because the current property market is already in a stable adjustment channel, under the influence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the short term, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, the sales offices have closed, and intermediary agencies have suspended operations. The scale of market transactions will decline in the short term. This impact will be concentrated in the first quarter of this year, and the market is expected to remain under pressure in March.

In terms of housing prices, short-term weak demand and aggressive promotion by housing companies may cause downward pressure on housing prices. However, Cao Jingjing pointed out that housing prices in some key cities have been adjusted for a period of time, and under the "steady housing price" policy, there is limited room for continued substantial decline.

Recently, the “stabilizing the property market” policy has been intensively introduced in many places, and some of them have introduced demand-side loosening policies such as “down payment”. After the epidemic, will there be a round of upward housing prices in the third and fourth tier property markets?

Cao Jingjing believes that the sales of the real estate market in the third and fourth tiers account for 65% of the national sales, and there is room for demand. However, due to the weakening of the shed reform and the monetization of the shed reform, it is difficult to reproduce the situation of large and rapid rise. In general, the pressure to adjust the property market in the third and fourth tiers will increase, and the differentiation between cities will become increasingly apparent. (Finish)