China News Service, February 29. According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, on February 29, 2020, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. In response, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the purchasing manager index fell significantly in February due to the impact of the epidemic, and the current recovery rate of enterprises is picking up rapidly, which will promote the rise of the purchasing manager index in March.
Zhao Qinghe pointed out that in February 2020, China's purchasing manager index was greatly affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The manufacturing PMI was 35.7%, a decrease of 14.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 29.6%, a decrease of 24.5 Percentage points. At the same time, the survey results show that with the Party Central Committee and the State Council coordinating the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the current rate of resumption of work in enterprises is rising rapidly, and production and operation activities are recovering in an orderly manner. As of February 25, among the companies surveyed by the national procurement managers, the resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises was 78.9%, of which large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises reached 85.6%.
The picture shows Shanxi heavy workers passing in front of the shearer. (Profile picture) Photo by Zhang Yun of China News Agency
Manufacturing purchasing managers index shrinks significantly
In February, affected by the epidemic, the manufacturing PMI was 35.7%, a sharp drop from the previous month. The main characteristics of the manufacturing PMI this month are as follows: First, the industries that protect basic people's livelihood are relatively less affected. In this month, the PMI of 21 industries in the manufacturing industry fell into the contraction range, but the impact of each industry is different. Among them, chemical fiber, general equipment, special equipment, automobile and other industries PMI fell below 30.0%; supported by the policy of stable production and supply to support the basic living needs of the people, agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine refined tea and other industries PMI Maintaining above 42.0%, the PMI of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry that provides health and medical protection is 39.7%, which is higher than the overall level of the manufacturing industry and is relatively less affected. Second, the decline in the new orders index was smaller than the production index. The production index and new order index were 27.8% and 29.3%, down 23.5 and 22.1 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index was 1.5 percentage points higher than the production index, indicating that manufacturing demand was relatively good. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the new order index of 15 industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine refined tea, and medicine was higher than the production index, especially the new order index of the agricultural and sideline food processing industry was still in the expansion range. Third, the pressure on manufacturing import and export has increased. The new export order index and import index were 28.7% and 31.9%, down 20.0 and 17.1 percentage points from the previous month. Some surveyed companies reported that due to the impact of the epidemic, order cancellations and delays in delivery have increased. Fourth, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises generally fell. The PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were 36.3%, 35.5% and 34.1%, down 14.1, 14.6 and 14.5 percentage points from the previous month.
Non-manufacturing business activity index drops below a critical point
In February, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 29.6%, a decrease of 24.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the impact of the epidemic was more severe.
The prosperity of the service industry dropped. The service industry business activity index was 30.1%, a decrease of 23.0 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the business activity index of 19 industries was in the contraction range, but the business activity index of the financial industry was 50.1%, which continued to stay in the expansion range, which played an important role in epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Although the business activity index of the telecommunications and Internet software industries has declined, it is significantly better than the overall level of the service industry under the support of new formats and technologies such as cloud office, online education and telemedicine. 11.3 percentage points. Demand in the consumer industry, where transportation, accommodation, catering, tourism, and resident services are highly concentrated, has plummeted, and business activity indexes have fallen below 20.0%.
Production and operation activities in the construction industry slowed. The construction industry business activity index and new order index were 26.6% and 23.8%, respectively, down 33.1 and 30.0 percentage points from the previous month. From market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 41.8%, a decrease of 22.6 percentage points from the previous month, but the civil engineering construction business activity expectation index was 51.8%, which remained above the threshold, indicating that relevant companies have confidence in the industry's recovery and development .
The current recovery rate of enterprises is picking up fast, which will push up the purchasing manager index in March
In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 28.9%, a decrease of 24.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have slowed significantly. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, were 27.8% and 29.6%, respectively.
Zhao Qinghe said that although the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused a large impact on the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises in the short term, the epidemic situation has been initially contained, and the negative impact on production is gradually weakening. The rate of resumption of business has risen rapidly and market confidence has steadily recovered. . Purchasing manager surveys show that the resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises will rise to 90.8% at the end of March, of which 94.7% will be in the manufacturing industry, up 11.9 and 9.1 percentage points respectively from the current level. Recently, a series of policies and measures such as tax and fee reduction, financial services, rent reduction and employment subsidy for the epidemic, especially support for small and medium-sized enterprises to pass the crisis, have been gradually implemented, which will effectively alleviate the difficulties brought by the epidemic to the production and operation of enterprises. To further boost corporate confidence and accelerate the pace of resuming production and production, it is expected that China's purchasing manager index will improve in March.