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A short term , perhaps two years, in which Podemos will not be a problem since it has been neutralized but in which, however, the Catalan independence movement will continue to be the biggest problem in the medium term . The vicious circle, the unsolved political trap that threatens to further polarize Parliament and block "the major majorities necessary to address the key challenges facing the Spanish economy."

It is the vision, the analysis that Bank of America Global Research makes about the situation in Spain in a document that is also signed by the Spanish Rubén Segura-Cayuela , chief economist for Europe of the firm and a reference for international investors who They want to know the Spanish reality.

In its text, Segura-Cayuela states that two of the concerns that the firm's clients transfer most are, first, if the Sánchez e Iglesias Executive will "survive"; and second, if in case of doing so the fact that the " extreme left " is present in the executive will be synonymous with "fiscal irresponsibility" and measures that will damage the "growth forecasts". And the analyst's response in both cases is moderately positive.

" We start from the basis that the Budget has already been negotiated with ERC, " he says, so the firm assumes that Sánchez and Iglesias will be able to carry out the accounts and will be in their hands to govern for at least two years. This is exactly what the Executive wants to achieve.

About Podemos, Segura-Cayuela believes that the influence of the purple formation will be moderate because it has no key Ministry but, above all, by two proper names that Bank of America considers key: " Nadia Calviño " will be "the vice president of economic affairs, for which he will supervise the most relevant reforms ", and the" new Ministry of Pensions created and in which the minister is the former president of the highly respected independent fiscal authority, José Luis Escrivá ". Two economists and politicians of recognized prestige to make decisions in their respective and important departments that, in the opinion of the entity, are a guarantee.

The decision-making capacity of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) is another reason why the firm believes that measures will not be taken against growth, and the new tax figures also do not seem to worry Bank Of America too much. Yes it does, however, the fact that Spain continues without tackling the deficit. In fact, he underlines that the Spanish economy has "the largest structural deficit in the euro zone", and its "large foreign debt" also makes it " vulnerable to confidence crises ."

The situation of Catalonia

But above all this, the biggest concern that moves the document is Catalonia. Due to the situation it generates in the country but, mainly, due to the fact that the aforementioned problems and the reforms that Spain needs are going to be hindered by the division that the independentist drift will cause in Congress. "The key issue that dominates Spanish politics at the moment is Catalonia, an aspect that is polarizing politics even more. The different positions on how to handle the situation and the secessionist thrust make it extremely difficult to build strong majorities around key reforms that are necessary, "explains document.

That is, that all the economic reforms that the country needs, and that should be agreed with a good part of Congress, will be even more complicated since the Government of Sánchez and Iglesias agree with ERC, while the forces of the right center totally reject this decision. The result is that if a broad agreement seemed complicated to, for example, solve the situation of pensions or actions to encourage growth, now it seems almost impossible .

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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  • Nadia Calviño
  • José Luis Escrivá
  • Catalonia

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