- In just 21 days, the Government is about to overcome the deficit target for the whole year
Sixteen study services consulted, and 16 responses in the same direction: the deficit will not be reduced significantly in this year. It is the conclusion that the forecast panel of the Spanish economy that Funcas published yesterday, and in which some of the most relevant entities of the country such as BBVA, CaixaBank or Bankia , in addition to the analysts of the Foundation of the Savings Banks of Savings, l to CEOE, the Chamber of Commerce of Spain or Repsol .
Only one of the forecasts maintains that the deficit will fall by 2% this year, which is that of the Economic Prediction Center. But even in this case, the correction of the deviation would be very limited, since it would only be reduced by four tenths. The rest offers figures that, in no case, are below the two points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and that show the total distrust that the Government is able to meet the 0.5% deficit target or to make the structural adjustment requested by Brussels.
The Executive trusts, on the one hand, in being able to renegotiate the path and, on the other, in taking forward the fiscal measures that it intends and that will significantly increase the income, a variable that the study services do not contemplate, since these are measures not yet approved. But when I take them out, several months of the year will have passed, even half a year. In addition, the new figures and the tightening of taxes do not translate into an instantaneous increase in collection, they need some time to begin to be noticed, which further reduces the impact. In other words, that the final impact will be less than that foreseen by the Government .
To this we must add that the vast majority of the 16 panelists who have offered their deficit estimate agree, once again, that the deviation reduction during 2019 was very limited. It is a position similar to what the Bank of Spain has already stated on more than one occasion, which has even pointed out that 2019 was a lost year in this regard and that the reduction that has occurred is due exclusively to « the favorable effects of the economic cycle ”, as well as“ the continuation of the process of reducing the average cost of debt ”, and not the efforts of the Executive.
The forecasts for the reduction of unemployment also show notable divergences with respect to those of the Ministry of Economy. In this case there are 19 study services that offer their forecast, and none of them consider it feasible that the unemployment rate is less than 13% in 2020. In fact, the average indicates that unemployment in EPA terms will barely exceed 14 , 1% to 13.5%. The Government, on the other hand, maintains that the figure will be 12.3%.
And finally, most estimates indicate that the Executive has been slightly optimistic in terms of growth . But in this case, at least there is a panelist who estimates that the rebound of 1.8% to which the official forecast rises could be feasible and others that point to 1.7%.
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