The coalition government between PSOE and Podemos will open great business opportunities in some sectors such as renewable energy and ballast others such as banking and real estate. The reports made these days by the investment banking include advice to their clients on the opportunities and threats for the main economic areas in order for them to take positions.

Analysts agree that one of the biggest beneficiaries will be the renewable energy sector after Teresa Ribera's promotion to one of the four vice presidencies that will make up the new Executive.

Investors foresee a great boost to the installation of these energies after Ribera itself has guaranteed a compensation of more than 7% until 2031 for current investors in photovoltaic and wind turbines and promoted plans for the closure of coal and nuclear power plants, whose power will be replaced by green energy in this new decade. The approval of a Law on Climate Change will be key in this regard.

Another of the sectors that a priori can benefit from the new Executive will be the construction sector, according to a UBS report. Attempts to combat the economic slowdown and the commitments made with different regional forces to obtain their support for the investiture will lead to an improvement in public works under the guidelines of the Ministries of Development and Depopulation. The limit in this case will be marked by the abuse of public spending and the fulfillment of the fiscal deficit objectives established by the European Commission.

On the other hand, in the negative part, the real estate and financial sectors have the worst prospects with Pedro Sánchez in Moncloa and Pablo Iglesias in the Council of Ministers.

The first will have to digest measures aimed at curbing the escalation of rental prices in large cities. "The regulatory measures necessary to put an end to the abusive increases in rental prices in certain areas of stressed market will be promoted," says the government agreement signed by both formations last December. At a lower rental price, less profitability for funds and individuals who are investing in brick in the absence of profitable investment alternatives due to the collapse of the Euribor.

The impact for the real estate sector will hit the main financial institutions in a flash. A lower price of these assets will make it difficult to balance the balance that some entities still have pending by reducing the attractiveness of operations.

In addition, the Government agreement establishes an increase in the minimum corporate tax rate up to 18% to this sector and leaves the door open to the application of an exclusive rate to banks to finance pensions, as it has repeatedly claimed. .

The program also includes the approval of a tax on financial transactions for the purchase of shares of entities of Spanish companies. "We will approve the Tax on financial transactions consisting of taxing the purchase operations of Spanish shares executed by operators in the financial sector," he said.

UBS believes that the new Government will face a "great challenge" when it comes to approving structural reforms or the General State Budget given the complex parliamentary arithmetic arising from the last elections. However, the Swiss bank provides for a stage of stability in the face of the difficulties that the opposition will have to move forward with a motion of censure.

Another of the sectors threatened by the new Executive will be tourism and hospitality for the planned increase to 1,200 euros of the minimum wage in the next four years. "The effect on basic labor sectors such as hotels, restaurants and other activities related to the tourism sector could be significant from our point of view and may affect unemployment data in areas that are relevant to Spain," notes the bank.

The investment bank expects that economic activity growth will be reduced by 1.7% in 2020 - three tenths less than the expected improvement of 2% last year - but it is optimistic to propose for the first time an economic "re-acceleration" in 2021 with a growth of 1.9%.

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  • PSOE
  • Pablo Iglesias
  • Pedro Sanchez
  • Teresa Ribera

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