The construction, real estate and agricultural sectors are hit hardest by the nitrogen ruling, ABN AMRO concludes in a report on Wednesday. The research branch of the bank concludes in Nitrogen that there is a wide spread across sectors that the decision is felt in every sector, but not proportionally.
In the report, the bank assesses whether the nitrogen issue increases the risk of bankruptcies, sales declines and restrictions on expansion opportunities.
The construction and real estate sectors are the hardest hit by the nitrogen ruling, ABN AMRO writes. The ruling, in which the Council of State (RvS) determined that nitrogen emissions should be limited because of the damage to Natura 2000 areas, the number of bankruptcies in construction can increase considerably.
The bank writes that eighteen thousand projects are currently under threat due to the ruling. The potential damage to the construction sector has been estimated by ABN AMRO at € 14 billion over the next five years. This involves 70,000 construction jobs out of a total of 527,000. On Wednesday, the construction sector is moving to Malieveld to demonstrate against the nitrogen ruling.
Project developers are also hit hard because projects are delayed or cannot even continue at all. In addition, local governments are issuing licenses less quickly than before.
See also: Eight questions (and answers) about the nitrogen problem
Problems in real estate and construction have a snowball effect
The problems in the construction and real estate sectors have a snowball effect: other sectors are affected by the damage done to the two sectors mentioned, according to ABN AMRO.
The stagnation of construction projects can in turn lead to bankruptcies among suppliers in the industrial sector. Even when construction companies start to postpone their investments, this will also have a negative impact on industry. In addition, the logistics sector is also affected by construction problems.
Problems with project developers can also lead to higher house prices, because it is becoming more difficult to build houses. The lack of new offers can have a price-increasing effect, the bank writes.
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The agricultural sector is also being hit
The agricultural sector is also hit hard by the nitrogen ruling, ABN AMRO writes. One of the consequences of the RvS ruling would be a reduction in livestock. This would affect farmers, but also feed producers, dairy producers, manufacturers of milking equipment and suppliers.
The nitrogen statement was one of the reasons why the farmers massively demonstrated in October. For example, the farmers have already traveled twice with their tractor to the Malieveld in The Hague to express their dissatisfaction.
See also: Is the meat industry an expensive hobby or an important source of innovation?
Fewer obvious sectors also hit
ABN AMRO writes that the nitrogen ruling also has negative consequences for less obvious sectors, such as healthcare and the leisure sector. According to the bank, it would become more difficult, for example, to build care homes and to hold festivals in nature reserves.
The nitrogen ruling also offers opportunities, concludes ABN AMRO. "Modular and circular construction offers good opportunities to get through the permit procedure," writes Madeline Buijs, sector economist Construction and Real Estate at the bank. Landlords and makers of electrical building material and car dealers who are leading the way in the sale of electric cars could also turn a blind eye here.