The red light to the dollar: how Russia is going to switch to the national currency calculations with its partners

Russia is actively working to transfer to the calculations in the national currency with its trading partners. Over the past few years, the country has already managed to accumulate the necessary experience in this field. On this Tuesday, September 4, said in an interview with RIA Novosti the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Denis Manturov.

"This applies to European countries to a lesser extent, it refers more to the countries of the Middle East, South-East Asia, even Latin America, Africa," the minister said.

A concrete example of such a currency transition may be the supply of components for the needs of the Russian car industry from Turkey. According to Denis Manturov, a number of national companies of the Russian Federation are ready to start calculating in Turkish lira in the near future. Moreover, the producers of the republic itself, according to the minister, also "with great pleasure" begin to conduct operations in the national currency.

As explained by RT Professor of the Department of World and National Economy of the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexander Belchuk, the process of transition to the calculations in the national currency is quite complex and takes a long time. According to the expert, first of all, the gradual refusal of operations in dollars will affect the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). So, against the backdrop of huge reserves and a large foreign trade turnover of the PRC, the leading role in this matter can be gained by the Chinese yuan.

"At the same time, Russia will not be left aside either, we have our own zone of influence - the former USSR, where the countries are to a large extent guided by Russia and will widely use trade in rubles. This will be the beginning, then we will have to look at the situation, but I think there are many who want to, "the expert said.

Later, in addition to the SCO countries, Russia, according to Belchuk, can switch to national currencies with Latin American states. The main contenders are the three largest countries in the region - Brazil, Mexico and Argentina.

Exact calculation

At the same time, economists also warn about certain difficulties in conducting dedollarization. There is a risk that not all Russian partners will be ready to switch to calculating in national currency. About this, in particular, told RT professor at the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the Higher School of Economics Alexei Portansky.

"Some goods are traded mostly in dollars, for example oil. Therefore, in those industries where it is necessary to undergo an extra stage of currency conversion, such a transition will be unprofitable. In our ministries we must carefully calculate everything, so that as a result there is no loss, "the expert said.

Nevertheless, according to the head of the Center for European Studies IMEMO RAS Alexei Kuznetsov, the transition to the calculation in national currencies has long-term economic bonuses. This is especially true of trade with the developing countries of Africa and Latin America.

"One can recall the Soviet experience of clearing mutual settlements with some states, for example, India, when we are promoting our machine-building and other products to these countries. They get bonuses, buying exactly our products. However, as a general panacea, this process does not work, since it can be implemented only with a limited number of countries, "the expert notes.

Alexei Kuznetsov believes that first of all, negotiations on this issue can be conducted with Russian trading partners from among the Arab countries, with members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEA), as well as Vietnam, Iran and India.

Drug from sanctions

Although initially the decision to switch to settlements in the national currency was not considered as a response to US sanctions, in the conditions of current anti-Russian restrictions, the need for this process began to appear more and more often in the large business of the Russian Federation. This was also mentioned by Denis Manturov. It is noteworthy that Earlier, First Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov also spoke about the possibility of switching to the national currency in the trading of oil against the background of the instability of the dollar.

"Conversations about how to reduce the role of the dollar have been going on for a long time, and they, from my point of view, will ultimately lead to a positive result. Because this is a very important factor of domination in the world - in addition to military force, "Belchuk said.

According to the expert, Russia will receive a number of advantages from the implementation of this decision, as dependence on loans in dollars and European currency will significantly decrease. This, in turn, will protect the state and foreign economic relations of Russia from negative influence from outside.

Tanks for rubles

The head of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation of the Russian Federation Dmitry Shugaev in his recent statement outlined the circle of applicants for calculating national defense contracts. In particular, the list includes India, China and Turkey. According to Shugaev, such operations are easiest to conduct with the largest trading partners. At the same time, he stressed that the countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have long been working in rubles, Interfax reports. Recall, CSTO members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

At the same time, Alexei Kuznetsov also does not exclude that Russia will eventually have to switch to other currencies in the process of trade in defense products.

"The thing is that there is a real threat - especially in the light of Trump's statements on trade in relation not only to Russia, but also to other countries," that deals and contracts will be frozen. Of course, until recently our producers were profitable to sell in dollars. But in principle, the transition to other currencies is realistic, and within the framework of military-technical cooperation, first of all, "the expert said.

Bias of dominance

Currently, the volume of transactions of Russian companies in national currencies is low. According to Denis Manturov, the most favorable option would be to bring the share of such operations to 50% of the total. At the same time, as the minister notes, the achievement of this benchmark is problematic, since Russia today does not intend to completely abandon the American and European markets.

Although, according to the Federal Customs Service, now the share of the EU and the US in the foreign trade turnover of Russia is slightly less than 50% (43.8 and 3.6% respectively for the first six months of 2018), RT experts interviewed also say that it is impossible to achieve such a high mark in the near future.

According to Alexei Kuznetsov, the most successful scenario for the immediate future could be to bring the volume of transactions in the national currency to 10-15% of the total in the next few years.

Alexander Belchuk, in turn, notes that in general today the global economy is moving towards a fragmentation of the world market into regional ones. Against this background, over time, the dominance of the dollar and the euro will undergo a number of restrictions. Nevertheless, it is still too early to say when this will happen, the expert concluded.