The Bank of Korea predicted that trade conflicts between the United States and China will not be resolved in the short term.

The negative impact on exports is likely to be visible from next year, and consumption and investment sentiment may weaken.

"The uncertainty regarding the US-China trade conflict will continue for the time being," the Bank of Korea said in its currency policy report submitted to the National Assembly on August 8.

The US - China trade conflict is intensifying further this year, with both countries imposing real tariffs on their counterparts' products.

It was the start of a full-fledged trade dispute that the US imposed tariffs on products worth $ 50 billion in March and April and $ 3 billion in China.

In July and August, the United States and China each imposed two additional tariffs on their $ 50 billion counterpart imports.

In September, the United States imposed tariffs on public goods worth $ 200 billion.

As a result, the US imposed high tariffs on about half of China's imports.

China is also paying $ 60 billion in tariffs on US products.

It is because the two countries are the major economies that account for 22.7% of world trade.

In Korea, both the United States and China are major trading partners.

If the trade disputes intensify, Korea may also be exposed to sparks.

In terms of trade, shrinking trade can reduce the demand for intermediate goods in China and the US, which could hurt Korea's exports.

In particular, China accounts for 24.8% of Korea's total exports.

Nearly 80% of them are intermediate goods.

It is analyzed that the US trade regulation measures have not had a significant impact on Korea's exports this year.

It has not been long since the tariff measures have taken effect, and there is a continuing increase in exports to the public.

In the first nine months of this year, Korea's exports grew 19.9 percent year-on-year, exceeding the growth rate of 4.7 percent.

However, next year, US tariffs on Chinese imports of US $ 200 billion will be raised from 10% to 25%, which could have a negative impact on Korean exports.

The BOK predicted, "Considering the items subject to US customs duties, exports will decline in industries such as electronic parts and chemical products in Korea."

The uncertainty of the world economy due to the US-China trade conflict can also be a downside risk to the Korean economy.

Households and businesses can postpone consumption and investment decisions.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted in a World Economic Outlook report last month that deterioration in economic sentiment due to global trade conflicts could have a more negative impact on the global economy than on bilateral tariff imposition measures.

The BOK said, "The US trade policy is being pursued for various purposes such as protecting the industry in the country and inducing foreign investment, and it is unlikely that the US-China dispute will be resolved in a short period of time."

"If the US and China trade conflicts lead to a slowdown in the global economy, the damage to the Korean economy could expand," he said. "We should carefully look at changes in global trade conditions."

(Yonhap News / Photo = Yonhap News)